China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

[JD.com (JD US) Target Price Change]: JD May Face 5bn Profit Reduction for Subsidy Campaign

[JD.com (JD US) Target Price Change]: Painful Transition Weighs on Both Topline and Margin

[JD.com (JD US, SELL, TP US$27) Earnings Preview]: Slow-Growth and Competitive Pressure Remain

JD.com (JD US) – Expecting limited additional financial impact from pandemic spread in 4Q22

JD(JD.US/9618.HK) 4Q22 Preview: Topline Reacceleration Could Happen in C2Q23

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>JD’s post-CNY recovery is slower than expected, based on our checks. We suggest JD would face an unfavourable external environment going forward due to: 1) the comeback of offline commerce; </li>
<li>2) PDD’s growing penetration in high-tier cities and brand products; 3) Meituan Instashopping offers faster delivery than JD.</li>
<li>We cut JD’s FY23 revenue YoY growth forecast from 13% to 11%. Our top and bottom line estimates for FY23 are (3%) and (5%) below cons. Downgrade to SELL</li>
</ul>


JD’s post-CNY recovery is slower than expected, based on our checks. We suggest JD would face an unfavourable external environment going forward due to: 1) the comeback of offline commerce; 
2) PDD’s growing penetration in high-tier cities and brand products; 3) Meituan Instashopping offers faster delivery than JD.
We cut JD’s FY23 revenue YoY growth forecast from 13% to 11%. Our top and bottom line estimates for FY23 are (3%) and (5%) below cons. Downgrade to SELL


[JD.com (JD US, SELL, TP US$48) Rating Change]: Rough Roads Ahead, DG to SELL

JD.com Inc (ADR)

[JD.com (JD US, SELL, TP US$48) Rating Change]: Rough Roads Ahead, DG to SELL