'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 7th April - His Finest Hour

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 8th April - Getting to 80%▼& The GDP Contraction Lottery

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 9th April - Communication Breakdown

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 1st April - Masking the Problem

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 31st March > Dividends at Risk

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET UPDATE 5th April 2020 • Overshoot

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 2nd April - Necessary Precautions

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan Consumer discretionary / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/126/826/original/File%202020-04-06%2014%2031%2044.jpeg?1586211571" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="126826"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Financial Times</div>ABE ROLLS THE DICE - Japan's solution to the recent alarming rise in COVID-19 infections is to adopt a middle way between those adopted by Sweden and the lockdown countries. The full details will emerge later today but will include constraints on social gatherings in certain major cities as well as a stimulus package equivalent to 20% of GDP. In a tacit acknowledgement that Japanese non-consumer facing businesses cannot function from home, companies will be requested to comply with the principle of 'stay-at-home' as much as possible; however, public transportation systems will operate as usual with no reduction in capacity. The measures will be in place until the end of the extended Golden Week holiday period that ends on 6th March. In effect, Japan will be in semi-social-distancing mode for the next three weeks. After that, should the R0 be below 1, Japan reverts to business-as-usual.BIFURCATION - The implications of these policies for the market should be considered positive and when combined with the stimulus package reduced the risk of a two-stage decline as noted in our market update <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-market-update-5th-april-2020-overshoot" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38114" rel="noopener"> Overshoot</a>. Domestically-orientated non-consumer facing businesses are relatively well-placed in this post-COVID world. Globally-exposed businesses will still suffer, and some will be dependent on government support to survive. We would look to add to oversold stocks in the former group while waiting for selling or shorting opportunities as sentiment towards the latter recovers before the inevitable comprise in earnings. Accordingly, this Insight is BULLISH.In the DETAIL below, we shall review the Revision and Results announced yesterday. The following quotation is a good summation of the philosophy behind "The Japan Experiment':-<blockquote>"The Japanese system is a set of equations optimizing for minimal pressure for institutional change by maximising leadership wiggle room, subject to the constraint of providing the entire populace a minimally acceptable quality of life for a rich nation." - Richard Hostetter </blockquote>

Source • Financial TimesABE ROLLS THE DICE - Japan's solution to the recent alarming rise in COVID-19 infections is to adopt a middle way between those adopted by Sweden and the lockdown countries. The full details will emerge later today but will include constraints on social gatherings in certain major cities as well as a stimulus package equivalent to 20% of GDP. In a tacit acknowledgement that Japanese non-consumer facing businesses cannot function from home, companies will be requested to comply with the principle of 'stay-at-home' as much as possible; however, public transportation systems will operate as usual with no reduction in capacity. The measures will be in place until the end of the extended Golden Week holiday period that ends on 6th March. In effect, Japan will be in semi-social-distancing mode for the next three weeks. After that, should the R0 be below 1, Japan reverts to business-as-usual.BIFURCATION - The implications of these policies for the market should be considered positive and when combined with the stimulus package reduced the risk of a two-stage decline as noted in our market update  Overshoot. Domestically-orientated non-consumer facing businesses are relatively well-placed in this post-COVID world. Globally-exposed businesses will still suffer, and some will be dependent on government support to survive. We would look to add to oversold stocks in the former group while waiting for selling or shorting opportunities as sentiment towards the latter recovers before the inevitable comprise in earnings. Accordingly, this Insight is BULLISH.In the DETAIL below, we shall review the Revision and Results announced yesterday. The following quotation is a good summation of the philosophy behind "The Japan Experiment':-"The Japanese system is a set of equations optimizing for minimal pressure for institutional change by maximising leadership wiggle room, subject to the constraint of providing the entire populace a minimally acceptable quality of life for a rich nation." - Richard Hostetter 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 6th April - The Japanese Experiment