'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 1st April - Masking the Problem

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 2nd April - Necessary Precautions

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET UPDATE 5th April 2020 • Overshoot

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Alert - 27th March - A Weekend at Home with the Swedish Model

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update - 30th March

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Alert - 26th March

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/809/original/2020-04-01_05-33-05.png?1585686825" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125809"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>TUESDAY 31st MARCH</strong> - Shareholder returns are now being sacrificed to shore up corporate cash flows in Japan. Yesterday saw<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-sheet-glass-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9013:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Sheet Glass (5202 JP)</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nextgen-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20914:1" rel="noopener">Nextgen (3842 JP)</a></strong> cancel their payouts, and reductions from <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsho-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6333:1" rel="noopener">Shinsho (8075 JP)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hakuto-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6207:1" rel="noopener">Hakuto (7433 JP)</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nipro-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18346:1" rel="noopener">Nipro (8086 JP)</a></strong>. Nipro has 'form' in this regard, but it is interesting to note that 2020's payout will be less than the ¥16 paid in 2009. We shall be covering the topic of "<em>Dividends at Risk</em>" in a forthcoming Insight. There were no large-cap results or revisions yesterday, but our scoring was five positive to six negative for results and eight positive to eleven negative for revisions.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/811/original/2020-04-01_05-56-47.png?1585688222" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125811"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (8306 JP)</a></strong> - MUFG chooses not to make forecasts, so we are reliant on Nikkei 'previews' for 'updates'. A<strong> ¥360b</strong> (US$3.34b) writedown of MUFG's stake in banks in Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines is to be booked for the fiscal year that ended yesterday. MUFG shares fell 5.4%, and <strong>Banks</strong> was the worst-performing Sector on the day. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/814/original/File%202020-04-01%206%2010%2027.jpeg?1585689079" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125814"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • covid19japan.com</div><p><strong>LOCKDOWN CORNER</strong> - By emphatically denying rumours of an impending 'lockdown' for Tokyo from tomorrow, the Government has limited their options for doing so without loss of credibility with the public. A rumour that Google Japan was suppressing searches about the rumour only helped to fan the flames and anxiety. Panic-buying re-emerged in grocery stores.  COVID-19 cases in Tokyo are now growing at an exponential rate, eclipsing the rest of Japan, with the majority of new cases are not conforming to Japan's pre-ordained epidemiological tracing protocols. Governor Koike held an emergency meeting with Prime Minister Abe last night. While the Tokyo Metropolitan Government is encouraging social distancing, only the national government can invoke stricter measures under the recently-enacted emergency laws. The current uncertainty over the Tokyo lockdown is not market-positive. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/820/original/2020-04-01_05-07-12.png?1585690885" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125820"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Deutsche Bank</div><p><strong>HISTORIC</strong> - Deutsche Bank has estimated that COVID-19 will result in a year-on-year economic contraction of <strong>3.9%</strong>, lower than that of 2009. Were Tokyo to lockdown for a month, the 2009 decline would probably be exceeded.</p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTUESDAY 31st MARCH - Shareholder returns are now being sacrificed to shore up corporate cash flows in Japan. Yesterday sawNippon Sheet Glass (5202 JP) and Nextgen (3842 JP) cancel their payouts, and reductions from Shinsho (8075 JP), Hakuto (7433 JP), and Nipro (8086 JP). Nipro has 'form' in this regard, but it is interesting to note that 2020's payout will be less than the ¥16 paid in 2009. We shall be covering the topic of "Dividends at Risk" in a forthcoming Insight. There were no large-cap results or revisions yesterday, but our scoring was five positive to six negative for results and eight positive to eleven negative for revisions.Source • Japan AnalyticsMitsubishi UFJ Financial (8306 JP) - MUFG chooses not to make forecasts, so we are reliant on Nikkei 'previews' for 'updates'. A ¥360b (US$3.34b) writedown of MUFG's stake in banks in Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines is to be booked for the fiscal year that ended yesterday. MUFG shares fell 5.4%, and Banks was the worst-performing Sector on the day. Source • covid19japan.comLOCKDOWN CORNER - By emphatically denying rumours of an impending 'lockdown' for Tokyo from tomorrow, the Government has limited their options for doing so without loss of credibility with the public. A rumour that Google Japan was suppressing searches about the rumour only helped to fan the flames and anxiety. Panic-buying re-emerged in grocery stores.  COVID-19 cases in Tokyo are now growing at an exponential rate, eclipsing the rest of Japan, with the majority of new cases are not conforming to Japan's pre-ordained epidemiological tracing protocols. Governor Koike held an emergency meeting with Prime Minister Abe last night. While the Tokyo Metropolitan Government is encouraging social distancing, only the national government can invoke stricter measures under the recently-enacted emergency laws. The current uncertainty over the Tokyo lockdown is not market-positive. Source • Deutsche BankHISTORIC - Deutsche Bank has estimated that COVID-19 will result in a year-on-year economic contraction of 3.9%, lower than that of 2009. Were Tokyo to lockdown for a month, the 2009 decline would probably be exceeded.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 31st March > Dividends at Risk