Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

The Delayed TOPIX FFW Rebalance: $32bn To Trade

Toshiba Finally Gets Into TOPIX but Beware the Baku  (It's Complicated)

TOPIX FFW Rebal: Proceeding But Not Ahead of Plan

Japan Post Insurance: The First Index Inclusion

Huge Japan Post Insurance Buyback Mooted - Decks Cleared. Time To Buy

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

In December, it was reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:840:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)</a> was considering an enormous buyback of its own shares from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> so that JPI can get JPH under 50% ownership.
I wrote about it VERY bullishly in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huge-japan-post-insurance-buyback-mooted-decks-cleared-time-to-buy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46429" rel="noopener">Huge Japan Post Insurance Buyback Mooted - Decks Cleared. Time To Buy</a>.
A couple of days later on the 25th of December, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.co.jp/news/articles/2020-12-24/QLVAS5T0AFB901" target="_blank" rel="noopener">news emerged</a> that the JPI Board of Directors had decided to postpone the consideration/decision of buying back shares from "by year end" to a later date because of the market reaction to the news leak. 
The key here is that apparently, if the stake held by Japan Post Holdings drops below 50%, new product launches move from an "Approval System" to an "Advance Notification System" under the complex rules which govern the Japan Post Insurance product offering suite, the Japan Post Holding post-privatisation management by regulators, and the insurance business in general. 
The shares, which had popped 10% on the original news, fell back somewhat. Those who contacted me about this situation know that I have continued to be bullish. The shares are up 6.2% from the close of that first day's news.
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I think it was a mistake for JPI to not decide to buy back the shares as of their 23 December board meeting. 
There are other dynamics at play.

In December, it was reported that Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) was considering an enormous buyback of its own shares from Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) so that JPI can get JPH under 50% ownership.
I wrote about it VERY bullishly in Huge Japan Post Insurance Buyback Mooted - Decks Cleared. Time To Buy.
A couple of days later on the 25th of December, news emerged that the JPI Board of Directors had decided to postpone the consideration/decision of buying back shares from "by year end" to a later date because of the market reaction to the news leak. 
The key here is that apparently, if the stake held by Japan Post Holdings drops below 50%, new product launches move from an "Approval System" to an "Advance Notification System" under the complex rules which govern the Japan Post Insurance product offering suite, the Japan Post Holding post-privatisation management by regulators, and the insurance business in general. 
The shares, which had popped 10% on the original news, fell back somewhat. Those who contacted me about this situation know that I have continued to be bullish. The shares are up 6.2% from the close of that first day's news.




I think it was a mistake for JPI to not decide to buy back the shares as of their 23 December board meeting. 
There are other dynamics at play.

Japan Post Insurance Update - Three Reasons To Buy. Any Overhang Slightly Higher