Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Smartkarma North Asia Weekly: MSCI Deletions, Japan Post Insurance, Yidu Tech, & Korean IPOs in 2021

Can You Profit from the KR Retail Investor? (Btw You Already Probably Have Met Him)

Japan Post Insurance Update - Three Reasons To Buy. Any Overhang Slightly Higher

Japan Post Insurance Offering - Now It Gets Real

Japan Post Insurance - The ToSTNeT-3 Buyback

JAPAN POST GROUP :  Bookbuilding Said "Mixed" But Know Your Details

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

That's it. It has started. The story and long-term look-through reason why it was not a bad idea to buy the last offering from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:840:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)</a> when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> in April 2019 has now come into the clear. Clearly, the METHOD of the buyback in April 2019 combined with the Really Quite Awful And Very Bad Investor Placement by Daiwa in that offering combined to deliver a shocking placing aftermath, but the willingness of Japan post Insurance to issue subordinated debt at a low interest rate to raise cash to buy back stock and the CEO's comment that they had capacity to do much more was a good reason to expect the news which has just come out. <h3>What News?  JPI Is On the Road to Emancipation</h3>Various media reports (I got the news first from <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-16/japan-post-insurer-plans-2-9-billion-buyback-to-cut-owner-stake" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg</a> and JPI had an official <a href="https://pdf.irpocket.com/C7181/j9N9/MJ5Y/o2qZ.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">comment</a> suggesting that the information did not come from them) suggested that Japan Post Insurance would have a board meeting this month to approve raising subordinated debt (to the tune of ¥100bn) and would buy back as much as ¥300bn of shares from its parent Japan Post Holdings, which currently owns 64.8% of shares out, with the goal of getting the JPH ownership level of Japan Post Insurance down below 50%. 50% is the magic level. That's the cause for excitement. From here, it gets a little complicated but the news leak suggests there is a fair bit of fire behind this smoke.

That's it. It has started. The story and long-term look-through reason why it was not a bad idea to buy the last offering from Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) when Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) in April 2019 has now come into the clear. Clearly, the METHOD of the buyback in April 2019 combined with the Really Quite Awful And Very Bad Investor Placement by Daiwa in that offering combined to deliver a shocking placing aftermath, but the willingness of Japan post Insurance to issue subordinated debt at a low interest rate to raise cash to buy back stock and the CEO's comment that they had capacity to do much more was a good reason to expect the news which has just come out. What News?  JPI Is On the Road to EmancipationVarious media reports (I got the news first from Bloomberg and JPI had an official comment suggesting that the information did not come from them) suggested that Japan Post Insurance would have a board meeting this month to approve raising subordinated debt (to the tune of ¥100bn) and would buy back as much as ¥300bn of shares from its parent Japan Post Holdings, which currently owns 64.8% of shares out, with the goal of getting the JPH ownership level of Japan Post Insurance down below 50%. 50% is the magic level. That's the cause for excitement. From here, it gets a little complicated but the news leak suggests there is a fair bit of fire behind this smoke.

Huge Japan Post Insurance Buyback Mooted - Decks Cleared. Time To Buy