Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Japan Post Bank (7182) - Missed Opportunity Leaves Likely Shadow Overhang

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) - Not Cheap Enough Vs Others, or Holdings

Japan's Banks - Lending Is Strong, Loan Officer Survey Suggests More, Credit Costs Can Be Low

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) Announces Its Re-IPO - Big Offering, Complicated but Big Index Flows

October 2023 TOPIX Free Float Review - $22.6bn to Trade and JPB (7182) The Biggie

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 22-February-2023 a Reuters suggested JPH (6178) had "started talks" to sell a big stake in JP Bank (7182). Five days later they announced a complicated deal discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-post-bank-7182-jp-announces-its-re-ipo-big-offering-complicated-but-big-index-flows" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</li>
<li>Today, an <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japan-post-planning-4-billion-sale-shares-japan-post-bank-sources-say-2025-02-26/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> suggests <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> will sell ¥600bn in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> to get ownership below 50% (as with JPI). A buyback might appear.</li>
<li>JPB has issued a "there's smoke" release. Like last time. Expected unwind of known overhang means minimal surprise here. The question is whether they could surprise (big buyback? capital plan?).</li>
</ul>


On 22-February-2023 a Reuters suggested JPH (6178) had "started talks" to sell a big stake in JP Bank (7182). Five days later they announced a complicated deal discussed here.
Today, an article suggests Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) will sell ¥600bn in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) to get ownership below 50% (as with JPI). A buyback might appear.
JPB has issued a "there's smoke" release. Like last time. Expected unwind of known overhang means minimal surprise here. The question is whether they could surprise (big buyback? capital plan?).


Japan Post Bank (7182) - Report of ¥600bn Offer Would Lead to Index Flows, and a New Future