'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Lasertec (6920 JP): Overbought, Take Profits

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​08 - Yaskawa, Seven & I

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​​13 JINS, Pasona, Sakata Seed

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​06 - Bellsystem24 & ARCS

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​07 - Izumi, Shift, NEXTAGE

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/05 - Daiseki, San-A, Nissin Foods

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan Industrials / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• $ BREAKOUT •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/831/original/2021-01-11_09-50-40.png?1610326256" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181831"></figure></section><p><strong>NEW $ HIGH</strong> - The TOPIX index posted a new post-bubble high in US dollar terms on Friday, exceeding the previous high of January 31st 2018. A new high in Yen terms is only 3% away and, given the current sentiment, should also be reached this month. As the market factors in the possibility of a return to commodity inflation and digests another State of Emergency, the <strong>Technology Hardware</strong> Sector joins <strong>Electrical Equipment</strong> and <strong>Machinery</strong> in Overbought territory. <strong>Energy</strong> and<strong> Metals</strong> stocks have seen a significant rebound while the COVID 'losers' <strong>Restaurants</strong>, <strong>Transportation</strong>, <strong>Real Estate</strong> &amp; <strong>REITs</strong>, and <strong>Consumer Service</strong>s Sectors search for new relative lows.   </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/832/original/2021-01-11_10-55-08.png?1610330120" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181832"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/833/original/2021-01-11_10-55-34.png?1610330145" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181833"></figure></section><p><strong>MARKET PER 33X</strong> -The market rally has pushed the forward earnings multiple back up to 33 times discounting one or more years of recovery.  </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/875/original/2021-01-11_14-38-44.png?1610343543" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181875"></figure></section><p><strong>SECTOR OP TRENDS</strong> - The only Sectors with rising operating income over the last three months are<strong> Energy</strong>, <strong> Internet Content &amp; Services</strong>, <strong>Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco</strong>,  <strong>Utilities</strong> and <strong>Other Consumer Products</strong>. The largest declines are in<strong> Consumer Services</strong>,<strong> Transport</strong>, <strong>Restaurants</strong>, <strong>Healthcare</strong> and <strong>Telecommunications</strong>.   </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/876/original/2021-01-11_14-54-40.png?1610344493" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181876"></figure></section><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/878/original/2021-01-11_14-58-55.png?1610344748" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181878"></figure></section><p><strong>REVISIONS ▲ RESULTS ►</strong> - Our momentum-based scoring methodology has seen a strong upturn in the Forecast/Revision Score and a more muted recovery in the trailing Results Score. The Sectors with the strongest upward momentum are <strong>Autos</strong>, <strong>Machinery</strong>,<strong> Electrical Equipment</strong>, <strong>Metals</strong> and <strong>Multi-Industry</strong>-  all but the last have outperformed over the last three months. Lagging Sectors include <strong><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/efjcusx11m46con/2021-01-11_15-29-27.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Media</a></strong>, <strong>Non-Bank Finance</strong>,<strong> Information Technology</strong>, <strong>Retail</strong>, <strong>Energy</strong> and <strong>Transportation</strong>. </p></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/880/original/2021-01-11_15-14-41.png?1610345693" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181880"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/881/original/2021-01-11_15-29-27.png?1610346581" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181881"></figure></section><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">Friday's best and worst large-cap pairing is cutting-tool specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/osg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19178:1" rel="noopener">OSG (6136 JP)</a> and drugstore <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a>.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/937/original/2021-01-12_06-44-33.png?1610401488" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181937"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/938/original/2021-01-12_06-45-03.png?1610401520" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181938"></figure></section>

• $ BREAKOUT •NEW $ HIGH - The TOPIX index posted a new post-bubble high in US dollar terms on Friday, exceeding the previous high of January 31st 2018. A new high in Yen terms is only 3% away and, given the current sentiment, should also be reached this month. As the market factors in the possibility of a return to commodity inflation and digests another State of Emergency, the Technology Hardware Sector joins Electrical Equipment and Machinery in Overbought territory. Energy and Metals stocks have seen a significant rebound while the COVID 'losers' Restaurants, Transportation, Real Estate &amp; REITs, and Consumer Services Sectors search for new relative lows.   MARKET PER 33X -The market rally has pushed the forward earnings multiple back up to 33 times discounting one or more years of recovery.  SECTOR OP TRENDS - The only Sectors with rising operating income over the last three months are Energy,  Internet Content &amp; Services, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco,  Utilities and Other Consumer Products. The largest declines are in Consumer Services, Transport, Restaurants, Healthcare and Telecommunications.   REVISIONS ▲ RESULTS ► - Our momentum-based scoring methodology has seen a strong upturn in the Forecast/Revision Score and a more muted recovery in the trailing Results Score. The Sectors with the strongest upward momentum are Autos, Machinery, Electrical Equipment, Metals and Multi-Industry-  all but the last have outperformed over the last three months. Lagging Sectors include Media, Non-Bank Finance, Information Technology, Retail, Energy and Transportation. • BEST &amp; WORST •Friday's best and worst large-cap pairing is cutting-tool specialist OSG (6136 JP) and drugstore Welcia (3141 JP).

🇯🇵 JAPAN • New Post Bubble $ High + Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​08

🇯🇵 JAPAN • New Post Bubble $ High + Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​08

🇯🇵 JAPAN • New Post Bubble $ High + Results & Revisions 01/08