Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

That China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is in trouble has been evident in Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and across Africa, where China's pursuit of "lebensraum" (living space) for its military (and markets for its excess industrial capacity) has been lightly disguised as debt-financed infrastructure development using China's own material, machinery and labour -- with precious few domestic economic multipliers and a legacy of massive debts that, in increasing numbers of cases, translates into eventual Chinese ownership of infrastructure assets. I was an invited speaker at the 3rd Indian Ocean Conference, held in Hanoi (the venue overlooking the West Lake into which the late John McCain was shot down during the Vietnam War). The conferences are organised jointly by think-tanks from India (India Foundation), Singapore (Rajaratnam School of International Studies), Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Vietnam.  All the Indian Ocean littoral states (Tanzania, Kenya, Iran, Bahrain,  Oman, all the way to Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Australia) were well-represented, as were other interested nations (Japan, S Korea, China, Taiwan, the US, the UK). The official speakers focused on "maintaining a rules-based order" and implementing the UNCLOS (UN Convention on the Law of the Sea). Vietnamese speakers spoke openly about the threat to peace and tranquility represented by China's construction work on disputed islands across the South China Sea. In my presentation, I distilled the diplomatic language into more easily understood terms: the main challenge across the Indian Ocean region was to respond to China's imperialistic claims on territories that no previous Han Chinese dynasty had ever been linked to (Tibet, East Turkestan, "Inner Mongolia", Taiwan, and hence the South China Sea). BRI is clearly perceived to be an embodiment of Chinese imperialism, but I suggested that multilateral institutions like AIIB, NDB (BRICS Bank) -- even if initiated by China -- were more credible institutions for effective engagement. And with China slipping into a current account deficit in 1H 2018, its expansive plans for BRI are more difficult to finance. Engaging with current account surplus countries -- like Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea and Malaysia -- were a better way forward for the Indian Ocean region. Scores of participants came up to me later and thanked me for having articulated their thoughts!

That China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is in trouble has been evident in Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and across Africa, where China's pursuit of "lebensraum" (living space) for its military (and markets for its excess industrial capacity) has been lightly disguised as debt-financed infrastructure development using China's own material, machinery and labour -- with precious few domestic economic multipliers and a legacy of massive debts that, in increasing numbers of cases, translates into eventual Chinese ownership of infrastructure assets. I was an invited speaker at the 3rd Indian Ocean Conference, held in Hanoi (the venue overlooking the West Lake into which the late John McCain was shot down during the Vietnam War). The conferences are organised jointly by think-tanks from India (India Foundation), Singapore (Rajaratnam School of International Studies), Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Vietnam.  All the Indian Ocean littoral states (Tanzania, Kenya, Iran, Bahrain,  Oman, all the way to Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Australia) were well-represented, as were other interested nations (Japan, S Korea, China, Taiwan, the US, the UK). The official speakers focused on "maintaining a rules-based order" and implementing the UNCLOS (UN Convention on the Law of the Sea). Vietnamese speakers spoke openly about the threat to peace and tranquility represented by China's construction work on disputed islands across the South China Sea. In my presentation, I distilled the diplomatic language into more easily understood terms: the main challenge across the Indian Ocean region was to respond to China's imperialistic claims on territories that no previous Han Chinese dynasty had ever been linked to (Tibet, East Turkestan, "Inner Mongolia", Taiwan, and hence the South China Sea). BRI is clearly perceived to be an embodiment of Chinese imperialism, but I suggested that multilateral institutions like AIIB, NDB (BRICS Bank) -- even if initiated by China -- were more credible institutions for effective engagement. And with China slipping into a current account deficit in 1H 2018, its expansive plans for BRI are more difficult to finance. Engaging with current account surplus countries -- like Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea and Malaysia -- were a better way forward for the Indian Ocean region. Scores of participants came up to me later and thanked me for having articulated their thoughts!  

IOC2018: Pushing Back Against China's Imperialism