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China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

<p>At the close of business yesterday, the PBOC announced it was cutting the reserve rate for banks by up to 1% for large banks.  Many are interpreting this as the PBOC forecasting slowing economy, in the month ahead.  We believe this may be part of their thinking but that there are other more fundamental reasons.</p><ol><li>We believe it is fair to say that the economy has slowed from H2 2017 and looks likely to trend downwards throughout 2018. However, we believe it overstates the concern both from our view…</li></ol>

At the close of business yesterday, the PBOC announced it was cutting the reserve rate for banks by up to 1% for large banks.  Many are interpreting this as the PBOC forecasting slowing economy, in the month ahead.  We believe this may be part of their thinking but that there are other more fundamental reasons.We believe it is fair to say that the economy has slowed from H2 2017 and looks likely to trend downwards throughout 2018. However, we believe it overstates the concern both from our view…

Interpreting the PBOC RRR Cut