Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Main findings: The risk-neutral probability distribution for USD 1Y inflation has a substantially larger right-hand skew than the one for EUR-flation, suggesting that markets are starting to factor in risks of accelerating USD inflation.</li><li>Based on the probability functions, the average market-based 1Y USD-flation expectations are anchored ABOVE 2%, while the EUR-flation mean hovers just above 1.5%.</li><li>Still, the Fed was expected to cut MORE than the ECB in 2024 until very recently.</li></ul>

Main findings: The risk-neutral probability distribution for USD 1Y inflation has a substantially larger right-hand skew than the one for EUR-flation, suggesting that markets are starting to factor in risks of accelerating USD inflation.Based on the probability functions, the average market-based 1Y USD-flation expectations are anchored ABOVE 2%, while the EUR-flation mean hovers just above 1.5%.Still, the Fed was expected to cut MORE than the ECB in 2024 until very recently.

Inflation Watch – How are markets pricing inflation in 1 year?