Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

Indonesia: Attractively Valued Amid Good Growth with Low Inflation and CA Surplus

Elections Likely to Hand a Decisive Mandate to Strongman Prabowo

Indonesia Politics: Prabowo Wins, But Does Indonesia?

Indonesia: More Rate Cuts to Spur Recovery After Recent Structural Reform

FOMC Acknowledges Its Policy Error and Will Front-Load Rate Hikes

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Bank Jago, Meralco's Sell-Down, and Unilever Indonesia

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Riding the boom in energy prices, Indonesia had twin surpluses in 1H2022: a fiscal surplus of 0.9% of GDP and a BoP current account surplus of 0.6% of GDP.</li>
<li>After last week's policy rate hike, real interest rates are close to positive. Fiscal strength allows the government to boost spending to counter the OECD recession over the next year.</li>
<li>We expect real GDP growth of 6%YoY in 2H2022, and 6.3% in 2023. With nominal GDP surging nearly 15%, EPS will be resurgent and valuations attractive. Overweight Indonesia.  </li>
</ul>


Riding the boom in energy prices, Indonesia had twin surpluses in 1H2022: a fiscal surplus of 0.9% of GDP and a BoP current account surplus of 0.6% of GDP.
After last week's policy rate hike, real interest rates are close to positive. Fiscal strength allows the government to boost spending to counter the OECD recession over the next year.
We expect real GDP growth of 6%YoY in 2H2022, and 6.3% in 2023. With nominal GDP surging nearly 15%, EPS will be resurgent and valuations attractive. Overweight Indonesia.  


Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX)

Indonesia: Set to Accelerate Amid the OECD Recession, Helped by Twin Surpluses