Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nicholas Chia

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

Indonesia: Questioning the Bull Scenario in 2022

Indonesia: Fiscal Dynamics On A Solid Footing

Commodity Windfall Allows Bank Indonesia To Tighten Policy On Its Own Terms

Indonesia: Tax Reforms Far From Perfect But Is Still A Step In The Right Direction

Covid-19: Too Much Pessimism Over Southeast Asia

COVID-19: Lull In Caseloads May Prove To Be Fleeting Amid Ample Epidemiological Uncertainty

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Demand is normalising, aided further by commodity prices on the bounce as the trade surplus widened further. A Current Account Surplus appears likely in 3Q21, according to your calculations:</li></ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/236/041/original/image_23380094331634614876910.png?1634614877" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="236041"></figure><ul>
<li>BI will be wary of shaking things up now that both the economy and the IDR are in a sweet spot. We do not expect significant turmoil in the currency markets for the IDR, given the sizeable yield differentials with the US. Foreign ownership of govt securities remains a shadow of its former self, insulating the IDR from gyrations spurred by the Fed's tapering and eventual tightening.</li>
<li>On fiscal policy, the government opted not to lower the VAT threshold for MSMEs, which represents a missed opportunity of sorts. But the 1%-3% tax rate will still boost government coffers at a time when ratings downgrade loom large in the absence of any improvement to the revenue mobilisation efforts. </li>
</ul>

Demand is normalising, aided further by commodity prices on the bounce as the trade surplus widened further. A Current Account Surplus appears likely in 3Q21, according to your calculations:
BI will be wary of shaking things up now that both the economy and the IDR are in a sweet spot. We do not expect significant turmoil in the currency markets for the IDR, given the sizeable yield differentials with the US. Foreign ownership of govt securities remains a shadow of its former self, insulating the IDR from gyrations spurred by the Fed's tapering and eventual tightening.
On fiscal policy, the government opted not to lower the VAT threshold for MSMEs, which represents a missed opportunity of sorts. But the 1%-3% tax rate will still boost government coffers at a time when ratings downgrade loom large in the absence of any improvement to the revenue mobilisation efforts. 


Indonesia: Goldilocks Economy and Currency; BI To Stand Pat As Animal Spirits Return