Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nicholas Chia

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

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Lockdowns Are Still In Vogue, but Rising Vaccination Rates Allow Asia To End 2021 On A Stronger Note

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>Poor management of the pandemic and a slow vaccine roll out have raised pessimism over SE Asia’s prospects.</li>
<li>But governments are veering away from restrictions and vaccinations are slowly improving (See Chart below for projected vaccination rates): we believe that the region could do better than expected towards the end of this year.</li>
<li>Regional travel could see some sort of a revival, though the return of Chinese tourists remain elusive in light of China's tolerance for zero-Covid.</li>
</ul><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;"> </td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 180.3pt;">Vaccination rates (% of population)</td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 180.35pt;">Projection (% fully vaccinated)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;"> </td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">1st Dose</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">2nd Dose</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">End-2021</td>
<td style="width: 90.2pt;">80%-threshold</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">Singapore</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">81.7%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">79.7%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">&gt;80%</td>
<td style="width: 90.2pt;">NA</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">Malaysia</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">68.7%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">57.3%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">&gt;80%</td>
<td style="width: 90.2pt;">Early-Nov 21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">Thailand</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">40.8%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">20.5%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">63.2%</td>
<td style="width: 90.2pt;">Mid-Feb 22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">Philippines</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">37.5%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">16.9%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">33.9%</td>
<td style="width: 90.2pt;">Early-Oct 22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">Indonesia</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">29.0%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">16.5%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">35.4%</td>
<td style="width: 90.2pt;">Early-Sep 22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">Vietnam</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">28.2%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">6.6%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">23.9%</td>
<td style="width: 90.2pt;">Early-Dec 22</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>


Poor management of the pandemic and a slow vaccine roll out have raised pessimism over SE Asia’s prospects.
But governments are veering away from restrictions and vaccinations are slowly improving (See Chart below for projected vaccination rates): we believe that the region could do better than expected towards the end of this year.
Regional travel could see some sort of a revival, though the return of Chinese tourists remain elusive in light of China's tolerance for zero-Covid.


 
Vaccination rates (% of population)
Projection (% fully vaccinated)


 
1st Dose
2nd Dose
End-2021
80%-threshold


Singapore
81.7%
79.7%
&gt;80%
NA


Malaysia
68.7%
57.3%
&gt;80%
Early-Nov 21


Thailand
40.8%
20.5%
63.2%
Mid-Feb 22


Philippines
37.5%
16.9%
33.9%
Early-Oct 22


Indonesia
29.0%
16.5%
35.4%
Early-Sep 22


Vietnam
28.2%
6.6%
23.9%
Early-Dec 22



Covid-19: Too Much Pessimism Over Southeast Asia