Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus, Aletheia Capital

Chris Roberts

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Technical Analysis

The NIFTY’s (NIFTY – 10,299) breakout above 6,000 in 2014, a barrier for more than 6 years, signaled a long-term improvement for the Indian stockmarket.Sustained breakouts above long-term ceilings that takes markets to new all-time highs are typically very positive events. The minimum expectation we have for a market when this occurs is a doubling, but given the NIFTY’s affinity for natural resistance levels we have a higher target of 13,500+. There is a cluster of natural resistance levels around that level.The INDEX set a new bull market high of 10,490 earlier this month, finally breaking above the 10,000-10,365 resistance zone after three months of ranging activity. The next chart objective is at 11,000.Our Primary Trend Indicator remains on a buy signal given June 2016 when the NIFTY was at 8,221, the index has gained 28% in the 17 months since then. But as the chart inside shows the three prior buy signals since 2004 lasted longer and saw more substantial returns.Our technical work at Asianomics focuses on longer term trends, using weekly and monthly charts and indicators. There is less distortion at this degree of trend and far less random price movements.

The NIFTY’s (NIFTY – 10,299) breakout above 6,000 in 2014, a barrier for more than 6 years, signaled a long-term improvement for the Indian stockmarket.Sustained breakouts above long-term ceilings that takes markets to new all-time highs are typically very positive events. The minimum expectation we have for a market when this occurs is a doubling, but given the NIFTY’s affinity for natural resistance levels we have a higher target of 13,500+. There is a cluster of natural resistance levels around that level.The INDEX set a new bull market high of 10,490 earlier this month, finally breaking above the 10,000-10,365 resistance zone after three months of ranging activity. The next chart objective is at 11,000.Our Primary Trend Indicator remains on a buy signal given June 2016 when the NIFTY was at 8,221, the index has gained 28% in the 17 months since then. But as the chart inside shows the three prior buy signals since 2004 lasted longer and saw more substantial returns.Our technical work at Asianomics focuses on longer term trends, using weekly and monthly charts and indicators. There is less distortion at this degree of trend and far less random price movements.

India, Nifty: Uptrend Resumes, Targeting 13,500+

NIFTY Index

India, Nifty: Uptrend Resumes, Targeting 13,500+