Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nicholas Chia

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

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India: Brace For A Sharp Snapback In Activity

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>Demand conditions are normalising following the outbreak of the second wave of infections in recent months. High-frequency activity indicators have seen a sharp snapback: e-way bill generation, GST revenues, fuel consumption and auto sales are all up. The middling performance of non-food credit demand, however, casts doubts on the strength of that rebound.</li>
<li>Nevertheless, we hew to our below-consensus growth forecast for FY22 of 9.5%, in light of considerable uncertainty over both public as well as private capital spending. New investment projects in the pipeline have picked up, but they have yet to converge on pre-crisis levels. Surveys show that capacity utilisation rates remain low, putting a limit on how exuberant private capital spending might be.</li>
<li>Moreover, a sub-par monsoon season leaves urban demand to do most of the heavy lifting, given that the rural economy will be struggling. Finally, India’s vaccine roll-out has improved but there is a long way to go before India can be confident that it can avoid another wave of infections.</li>
</ul>


Demand conditions are normalising following the outbreak of the second wave of infections in recent months. High-frequency activity indicators have seen a sharp snapback: e-way bill generation, GST revenues, fuel consumption and auto sales are all up. The middling performance of non-food credit demand, however, casts doubts on the strength of that rebound.
Nevertheless, we hew to our below-consensus growth forecast for FY22 of 9.5%, in light of considerable uncertainty over both public as well as private capital spending. New investment projects in the pipeline have picked up, but they have yet to converge on pre-crisis levels. Surveys show that capacity utilisation rates remain low, putting a limit on how exuberant private capital spending might be.
Moreover, a sub-par monsoon season leaves urban demand to do most of the heavy lifting, given that the rural economy will be struggling. Finally, India’s vaccine roll-out has improved but there is a long way to go before India can be confident that it can avoid another wave of infections.


India: A Growth Disappointment Could Be In The Works