Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

India: Tough Guy Modi Flinches In Confrontation With Farmers

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Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In India, higher fuel costs will hurt growth while rekindling inflation. A dovish RBI seems content to allow real rates to stay negative at around -1% in order to gin up the economy.</li>
<li>In any case, lower potential growth rates because of sub-par investments since before the pandemic imply a lower neutral policy rate. The runway for liftoff by the RBI is thus shorter, and should plateau at around 5%, compared to pre-crisis levels of around 6%-8%. This could still change, if the capex upturn materialises in a meaningful manner.</li>
</ul>


In India, higher fuel costs will hurt growth while rekindling inflation. A dovish RBI seems content to allow real rates to stay negative at around -1% in order to gin up the economy.
In any case, lower potential growth rates because of sub-par investments since before the pandemic imply a lower neutral policy rate. The runway for liftoff by the RBI is thus shorter, and should plateau at around 5%, compared to pre-crisis levels of around 6%-8%. This could still change, if the capex upturn materialises in a meaningful manner.


India: Counting The Cost Of Surging Oil Prices