Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Ifo Watch: Is Germany flirting with a recession?

The Week At A Glance: The slippery slope of data revisions

Steno Signals #114 – A Powell Put is Ueda’s Catastrophe

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We begin with the Ifo Employment Barometer, which took a sharp downward turn, reinforcing the recessionary signals from last month’s data.</li><li>In our view, it’s only a matter of time before Lagarde shifts her focus from inflation to employment, much like the Fed has done.</li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Our models suggest year-over-year inflation will reach 2% by early 2025, making employment the likely next priority. </span></li></ul>

We begin with the Ifo Employment Barometer, which took a sharp downward turn, reinforcing the recessionary signals from last month’s data.In our view, it’s only a matter of time before Lagarde shifts her focus from inflation to employment, much like the Fed has done.Our models suggest year-over-year inflation will reach 2% by early 2025, making employment the likely next priority. 

Ifo Nugget: It’s beginning to smell like recession