Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cam Hui has been professionally involved in the financial markets since 1985 in a variety of roles, both as a quantitative equity portfolio manager and as a sell-side analyst. He graduated with a degree in Computer Science from the University of British Columbia in 1980 and obtained his CFA Charter in 1989.

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

United states & china / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Last week’s report generated much discussion (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-s-p-500-is-in-a-bear-market" target="_blank">The S&amp;P 500 Is In A Bear Market</a>). Some of the questions related to the duration and downside target in a bear market. How far can stocks fall? How long will it last? What might be the trigger for a buy signal?To reiterate our thesis from last week. Poor technical action and a recession forecast for late 2019 or early 2020 prompted the equity sell signal. The recession forecast stems from the combination of near-recession conditions based on conventional U.S. macro indicators, evidence of global weakness in both Europe and China, and the near certainty of a trade war which would further tank global growth.What might turn this bear thesis around, or put a halt to the bear market? Here are a few possible fundamental triggers:<ul>
<li>An end to the trade war</li>
<li>More stimulus underpinned by the ascendancy of MMT in fiscal policy circles</li>
</ul>At this point, the jury is out as to whether these positive catalysts can actually happen, so we remain “data dependent”.

Last week’s report generated much discussion (see The S&amp;P 500 Is In A Bear Market). Some of the questions related to the duration and downside target in a bear market. How far can stocks fall? How long will it last? What might be the trigger for a buy signal?To reiterate our thesis from last week. Poor technical action and a recession forecast for late 2019 or early 2020 prompted the equity sell signal. The recession forecast stems from the combination of near-recession conditions based on conventional U.S. macro indicators, evidence of global weakness in both Europe and China, and the near certainty of a trade war which would further tank global growth.What might turn this bear thesis around, or put a halt to the bear market? Here are a few possible fundamental triggers:
An end to the trade war
More stimulus underpinned by the ascendancy of MMT in fiscal policy circles
At this point, the jury is out as to whether these positive catalysts can actually happen, so we remain “data dependent”.

How the Bear Market Could End