Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Holdco Analysis -Heineken Holding: NAV Discount Breaking Out to a Four-Year High

Heineken Holdings: Holdco Discount Could Return to Pre-COVID Levels

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21118:1" rel="noopener">Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA)</a> is currently trading at a Holdco discount of 20.25%, which is below -2.0x the standard deviation of the 180-day average Holdco discount.</li>
<li>We have noticed that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-nv-a891c739-a3af-4147-aaec-95028301d46a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33777:1" rel="noopener">Heineken NV (HEINY US)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21118:1" rel="noopener">Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA)</a> ratio tends to bottom during bear markets and peak during extreme bull runs.</li>
<li>With the bull run ending and the Heineken to Heineken Holding ratio near the peak, it may be a good time for a Short Heineken and Long Heineken Holding trade.</li>
</ul>



Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA) is currently trading at a Holdco discount of 20.25%, which is below -2.0x the standard deviation of the 180-day average Holdco discount.
We have noticed that the Heineken NV (HEINY US) to Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA) ratio tends to bottom during bear markets and peak during extreme bull runs.
With the bull run ending and the Heineken to Heineken Holding ratio near the peak, it may be a good time for a Short Heineken and Long Heineken Holding trade.


Heineken Holdco Discount: About Time for a Change in Direction