Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

The Tabbush Report: Asian bank research and consultancy, without the noise.

Daniel Tabbush has ~30 years experience analyzing Asia-Pacific banks, including HSBC, Standard Chartered, Japanese and Australian banks. His research and consulting focuses on global banking issues, including with banks in the US. He was the Head of Asian Bank research at the number one Asian brokerage CLSA for most of his career, overseeing coverage of 80 banks and 10 analysts in Asia-Pacific.

He has been highly ranked by Asiamoney, The Asset and Bloomberg, as well as by institutional investors focused on Asia. He continues to appear in press interviews with TVB in Hong Kong, and has appeared on CNBC in the past. He maintains an information-sharing agreement with Dr. Jim Walker of Asianomics, the foremost economist in Asia-Pacific, and Tabbush was an invited speaker on Asian banks at the Independent Research Summit in Hong Kong, during years 2013 and 2014.

Daniel started his own independent bank research and consultancy in 2012, under the banner name Tabbush Report. Since 2014, he has been a member of University of California San Diego Economics Leadership Council (ELC), supporting Economic students at the University through this alumni association, and providing guidance on Economics program develoment. Daniel grew up in Los Angeles, graduated from UCSD in Economics, cum laude and with Phi Beta Kappa honors. He lives with his family in Bangkok, and enjoys cooking, running and chess.

He is known for extolling the unusual positives of Japan’s mega banks in 2005, and the risks likely to hit HSBC from its U.S. subprime loan operations, in 2006.  More recently, when most were concerned with nearly all Western banks in late 2008, Tabbush highlighted the positive outlook for Standard Chartered Bank at that time. 

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 
 
Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, S&P Global Market Intelligence. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics.

Research and consultancy

HDFC Bank – Quarterly Credit Deterioration

HDFC Bank – New Pillar Three Data Worries

By Deferring Tax, HDFC Bank Inflates Current Profits at the Cost of Future Profits

HDFC Bank – The Uncanny, Numerous, Commonalities with YES Bank

HDFC Bank – Newly Released Annual Report Holds Troves of Granular Data, Not All of Which Is Positive

HDFC Bank – Aggressive Lending Against Higher Rates Is a Red Flag

Finally, the Regulator Regulates, Pushes Kapoor Out as CEO of Yes Bank

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>It is easy to see how quickly investors can sour with once-loved financials. In India this list is gathering momentum and now includes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13086" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13086:1">Indiabulls Housing Finance (IHFL IN)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/767" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:767:1">Yes Bank Ltd (YES IN)</a> has been unloved for some time.  Famed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/252" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1">Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC IN)</a> is now caught in the fray that is affecting non-banking financial companies (NBFCs). It will be interesting to see if there is circumspection surrounding the pinnacle of them all, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/558" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a>. While the bank’s latest results, out over the weekend, are superficially fine, credit costs continue to rise. The risk is that on the current trajectory, credit cost growth is well higher than HDFC Bank saw during FY17 or FY18 and possibly, more than most of the analyst community is forecasting. Where this is occurring alongside a real worsening in the credit market, partly focused in the NBFC space, deterioration can be exacerbated. Credit rationing or credit contraction even just with NBFCs and government banks, can have an economic impact that also affects the most beloved private banks. This includes HDFC Bank.</p>

It is easy to see how quickly investors can sour with once-loved financials. In India this list is gathering momentum and now includes Indiabulls Housing Finance (IHFL IN). Yes Bank Ltd (YES IN) has been unloved for some time.  Famed Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC IN) is now caught in the fray that is affecting non-banking financial companies (NBFCs). It will be interesting to see if there is circumspection surrounding the pinnacle of them all, HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN). While the bank’s latest results, out over the weekend, are superficially fine, credit costs continue to rise. The risk is that on the current trajectory, credit cost growth is well higher than HDFC Bank saw during FY17 or FY18 and possibly, more than most of the analyst community is forecasting. Where this is occurring alongside a real worsening in the credit market, partly focused in the NBFC space, deterioration can be exacerbated. Credit rationing or credit contraction even just with NBFCs and government banks, can have an economic impact that also affects the most beloved private banks. This includes HDFC Bank.

HDFC Bank

HDFC Bank – Falling Out Of Love