Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Harmonic Drive – Overvaluation and the ROBO ETF

Harmonic Drive – One Step Forward One Step Back

End of An Era: Nabtesco and Harmonic Drive Dissolve Their Alliance - Event Lost, Pressure On

Harmonic Drive: Nothing Harmonic About the Guidance

Harmonic Drive – Margin Deterioration Hurts Even LT Story

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Harmonic Drive Systems / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Harmonic Drive posted 4Q results which were slightly mixed as revenue missed consensus slightly, but the company beat on OP and avoided a loss which was positive. While the company did not offer FY guidance, it at least provided 1Q guidance which is a helpful indicator. HDS is calling for ¥9.5bn in revenue and a slim profit of ¥200m with this backed up by 4Q orders which hit ¥8.9bn, up from the bottom of ¥5.6bn but a far cry from the peak of ¥22.1bn. All in all we considered the results and guidance to be positive, but against the context of the stock price we feel they demonstrate that risk-reward is skewed extremely heavily to the downside.</p>

Harmonic Drive posted 4Q results which were slightly mixed as revenue missed consensus slightly, but the company beat on OP and avoided a loss which was positive. While the company did not offer FY guidance, it at least provided 1Q guidance which is a helpful indicator. HDS is calling for ¥9.5bn in revenue and a slim profit of ¥200m with this backed up by 4Q orders which hit ¥8.9bn, up from the bottom of ¥5.6bn but a far cry from the peak of ¥22.1bn. All in all we considered the results and guidance to be positive, but against the context of the stock price we feel they demonstrate that risk-reward is skewed extremely heavily to the downside.

Harmonic Drive – 1Q Guidance for a Small Profit Positive; Still Wildly Overvalued