Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Securities analyst covering electronics, precision equipment & robotics, engineering, construction, transport and other sectors for more than 25 years in Japan and 3 years in Korea. Permanent resident of Japan.

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Choose an Entry Point Carefully

Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Difficult Year Ahead

Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Earning Momentum Fading

Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Likely to Consolidate Recent Gains

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Fully Valued but Not Over-Valued

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Hamamatsu Photonics Kk / Equity Bottom-Up

Hamamatsu Photonics hit a new high of ¥7,050 last February, but hasn't regained the ¥7,000 level since then despite raising FY Sep-21 profit guidance by more than 20% after strong 1H results. In a positive scenario, profits could continue to rise at double-digit annual rates for another two years, but this, too, appears to be in the price.At 50x management's EPS guidance for FY Sep-21 and 39x our EPS estimate for FY Sep-23, the larger risk appears to be on the downside.Potential negatives include the diversion of record profits into higher than usual R&amp;D spending, a downturn in sales to the semiconductor industry when the current investment boom comes to an end, and a slowdown in demand for PCR testing equipment.

Hamamatsu Photonics hit a new high of ¥7,050 last February, but hasn't regained the ¥7,000 level since then despite raising FY Sep-21 profit guidance by more than 20% after strong 1H results. In a positive scenario, profits could continue to rise at double-digit annual rates for another two years, but this, too, appears to be in the price.At 50x management's EPS guidance for FY Sep-21 and 39x our EPS estimate for FY Sep-23, the larger risk appears to be on the downside.Potential negatives include the diversion of record profits into higher than usual R&amp;D spending, a downturn in sales to the semiconductor industry when the current investment boom comes to an end, and a slowdown in demand for PCR testing equipment.

Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Fully Valued, Take Profits