Greggs — Performing well in a challenging market

FY24 was a good year for Greggs as its long-term strategy to grow revenue, coupled with more favourable input cost inflation, provided better profit growth than in FY23. In common with many consumer companies, the environment has deteriorated through the back end of H224 and into the start of FY25. Greggs’ value perception continues to improve and it has maintained overall value share of the market, suggesting wider weakness. We reduce our FY25 and FY26 PBT estimates by c 2% and c 9%, respectively, to reflect more conservative growth assumptions and operating margin headwinds.