Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

Gol Linhas Aereas Intel-Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>GOL has filed for CH11 in a New York court and will look to restructure, as major competitors/peers LATAM Group, Avianca and Aeromexico did when COVID struck, disadvantaging GOL.</li>
<li>To illustrate GOL's disadvantage; in 9M23, GOL's financing costs outweighed its EBITDAR to drive a negative PBT, whereas LATAM's PBT represented 29% of EBITDAR, despite lower EBITDAR margins of 22%. </li>
<li>Based on recent precedents, we expect the process may take two years.</li>
</ul>


GOL has filed for CH11 in a New York court and will look to restructure, as major competitors/peers LATAM Group, Avianca and Aeromexico did when COVID struck, disadvantaging GOL.
To illustrate GOL's disadvantage; in 9M23, GOL's financing costs outweighed its EBITDAR to drive a negative PBT, whereas LATAM's PBT represented 29% of EBITDAR, despite lower EBITDAR margins of 22%. 
Based on recent precedents, we expect the process may take two years.


GOL - Chapter 11 Filing In a Bid to Ensure Financial Sustainability