Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Capital Markets

Avianca Holdings Sa / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Avianca reached $1,200m EBITDAR in 2023, ahead of our forecast of $1,162m, already exceeding its 2024 target.</li>
<li>The company does not provide guidance on 2024 profitability but we publish our quarterly bridge analysis and map prospects versus LATAM Group guidance.</li>
<li>We forecast 10% yoy EBITDAR growth in 2024 on 20% capacity growth, which compares to our forecast of 15% EBITDAR growth at LATAM, which is growing less aggressively.</li>
</ul>


Avianca reached $1,200m EBITDAR in 2023, ahead of our forecast of $1,162m, already exceeding its 2024 target.
The company does not provide guidance on 2024 profitability but we publish our quarterly bridge analysis and map prospects versus LATAM Group guidance.
We forecast 10% yoy EBITDAR growth in 2024 on 20% capacity growth, which compares to our forecast of 15% EBITDAR growth at LATAM, which is growing less aggressively.


Avianca – Bridging 2024 Prospects with a Little Help from LATAM