Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. 

I'm a highly experienced sell-side analyst with in excess of 22 years of covering Asia Pacific equities, the past 19 years immersed in event strategies encompassing M&A risk arbitrage, directional long/short, stub trades and restructuring.  

My background also includes accountancy (liquidation/bankruptcy/receivership) earlier in my career and as a chief financial officer of a global commodity company based in the US and Mexico.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Agri Industries Hldgs / Event-Driven

On the 25 November, grain processor and trader <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-agri-industries-hldgs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11088:1" rel="noopener">China Agri Industries Hldgs (606 HK)</a> was <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2019/1125/2019112500137.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspended</a> pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.
This morning state-owned COFCO, and major shareholder, has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2019/1128/2019112800135.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposed</a> the privatisation of China Agri at $4.25/share, a 34.07% premium to last close, by way of a Scheme. The price is final. No dividends to be added, or netted.
COFCO, together with concert parties, holds 60.75% of shares out. Scheme shares - or independent shares, as both numbers are almost identical - comprise 39.25% of shares out, therefore the blocking vote at the Scheme Meeting is 3.925%. No single shareholder has such a blocking stake.
Outstanding options move the numbers a smidgen but it will have little bearing on the outcome.
China Agri is Hong Kong-incorporated therefore the headcount test does not apply.
This looks like a pretty clean Scheme. I estimate payment the second week of March. Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 5.2%/19.9% as I type. I'd take those odds.

On the 25 November, grain processor and trader China Agri Industries Hldgs (606 HK) was suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.
This morning state-owned COFCO, and major shareholder, has proposed the privatisation of China Agri at $4.25/share, a 34.07% premium to last close, by way of a Scheme. The price is final. No dividends to be added, or netted.
COFCO, together with concert parties, holds 60.75% of shares out. Scheme shares - or independent shares, as both numbers are almost identical - comprise 39.25% of shares out, therefore the blocking vote at the Scheme Meeting is 3.925%. No single shareholder has such a blocking stake.
Outstanding options move the numbers a smidgen but it will have little bearing on the outcome.
China Agri is Hong Kong-incorporated therefore the headcount test does not apply.
This looks like a pretty clean Scheme. I estimate payment the second week of March. Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 5.2%/19.9% as I type. I'd take those odds.

Going With The Grain As COFCO Bids For China Agri