Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

CrossBorder Capital an investment advisory firm specialising in macro-investing. Founded in 1996 with an international client base, CrossBorder focuses on monitoring and understanding global liquidity and capital flows. Our proprietary databases (available to clients) cover 80 countries in depth from 1980 onwards. We take a systematic quantitative methodology that uses this data with AI models to predict financial market movements. The efficacy of our data has been independently verified, and we have an associated but separate asset management division.

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

US Big Banks - Wkly B/S 20 Sep, Slower Loans +1.5%, CRE -0.5%, Big Term-Deposits Up to 6.8% of Total

Monitoring Global Central Bank Actions for Potential Clues

US Banks - Cash +USD90bn in Week, CRE  -0.55% YoY, C&I +0.36% YoY, Book Value Growth Dwindles 3 Wks

The Eventual Shift in Fed Policy: When & By How Much?

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>US Treasury term premia, a key component of yields, are starting to move higher from their recent extreme lows</li>
<li>Potentially they could jump 100bp higher, forcing 10yr US Treasuries to test 5½%.  US Fed may be powerless to stop this move</li>
<li>Problem is higher Treasury coupon supply and lower foreign demand
</li>
</ul>


US Treasury term premia, a key component of yields, are starting to move higher from their recent extreme lows
Potentially they could jump 100bp higher, forcing 10yr US Treasuries to test 5½%.  US Fed may be powerless to stop this move
Problem is higher Treasury coupon supply and lower foreign demand



Global Liquidity Will Be Hit By Sell-Off in Treasuries