Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

Escalating US-China Tensions: Not Quite a Cold War but Risks for East Asia up Sizeably

Don’t Hold Your Breath for a Timely Resolution to US-China Strategic Rivalry

Global Trade Outlook Still Clouded by US-China Jousting

Global Trade: Japan Could Be Next as the US-China Trade Spat Escalates

Trade Tensions Will Continue to Undermine Confidence in Asia

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The strategic dimension of US-China relations now dominates over the economic/trade one; the US views China as its primary geostrategic rival and the recent tariff measures are aimed at restraining China’s rise as much as resolving (perceived economic imbalances).</li>
<li>China’s economic position is more fragile than the US’s, it has to be careful in the risks it takes if it chose to escalate the conflict with the US; it will pragmatic in choosing its battle but will hit hard when victory is reasonably assured.</li>
<li>China is likely to embark on a new national strategy embracing the following features: 1) recalibration of international engagement strategy; 2) move up the value chain and become technologically independent; 3) stimulus to support short-term domestic demand; and 4) offer more inducements to foreign investors.</li>
<li>There are emerging signs of more production shifts out of China as more firms realise that the trade war is part of a broader and longer-lasting geo-political confrontation. Southeast Asia could benefit from being at the heart of South Korea and Taiwan’s strategic rethinks.</li>
</ul>


The strategic dimension of US-China relations now dominates over the economic/trade one; the US views China as its primary geostrategic rival and the recent tariff measures are aimed at restraining China’s rise as much as resolving (perceived economic imbalances).
China’s economic position is more fragile than the US’s, it has to be careful in the risks it takes if it chose to escalate the conflict with the US; it will pragmatic in choosing its battle but will hit hard when victory is reasonably assured.
China is likely to embark on a new national strategy embracing the following features: 1) recalibration of international engagement strategy; 2) move up the value chain and become technologically independent; 3) stimulus to support short-term domestic demand; and 4) offer more inducements to foreign investors.
There are emerging signs of more production shifts out of China as more firms realise that the trade war is part of a broader and longer-lasting geo-political confrontation. Southeast Asia could benefit from being at the heart of South Korea and Taiwan’s strategic rethinks.


Further Worsening of US-China Ties Carries Deep Implications for East Asia