FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Longfin Corp (LFIN US) - When Bitcoin & Global Equities Collide

Q1 USD Low to Front Run Q2 EEM Correction

USD: Political Risk Proxy / US Stocks: Tax Reform Proxy

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>There is something of a disconnect between US equities, firing up on tax reform, and the USD and US bond yields struggling to gain traction.  Some of the recent weakness in the USD appears to be related to political uncertainty, embodied in a sinking Trump approval rating, despite tax reform.  Trump's net approval rating hit a new low last week, but the latest polls hint at an improvement. Notwithstanding tax reform and risk that the US economy overheats in 2017, the market has more bearish calls for the USD next year.  These calls are not unreasonable, but the market may be relying too much on convenient explanations for a weaker USD in 2017 and assuming these will hold up in 2018.  We see more to the Trump tax reform bill than many left-wing commentators that are hoping Trump will fail.  The 21% corporate tax rate and nationalist economic policies have other government’s worried and may drive companies to book more revenue in the USA, even before you add in a potential real boost to growth.  This may make the tax policy look much better than modest market expectations. The taper in global QE is too slow as we head into 2018, and may pump more air into frothy asset markets, creating a more dangerous bubble than bitcoin (which we see as still under-valued as it grows into a store of value asset). As we head into 2018, we suggest taking FX forecasts with a grain of salt. In this environment, it may pay to adopt a patient and contrary stance, waiting for fleeting trends to crack and the fickle market to switch focus to the next spurious correlation.  Beware unforeseen strength in the US economy related to the massive corporate tax cut and upside risk to inflation.  This may result in surprising strength in the USD in 2018 and a correction on global asset markets.</em></p>

There is something of a disconnect between US equities, firing up on tax reform, and the USD and US bond yields struggling to gain traction.  Some of the recent weakness in the USD appears to be related to political uncertainty, embodied in a sinking Trump approval rating, despite tax reform.  Trump's net approval rating hit a new low last week, but the latest polls hint at an improvement. Notwithstanding tax reform and risk that the US economy overheats in 2017, the market has more bearish calls for the USD next year.  These calls are not unreasonable, but the market may be relying too much on convenient explanations for a weaker USD in 2017 and assuming these will hold up in 2018.  We see more to the Trump tax reform bill than many left-wing commentators that are hoping Trump will fail.  The 21% corporate tax rate and nationalist economic policies have other government’s worried and may drive companies to book more revenue in the USA, even before you add in a potential real boost to growth.  This may make the tax policy look much better than modest market expectations. The taper in global QE is too slow as we head into 2018, and may pump more air into frothy asset markets, creating a more dangerous bubble than bitcoin (which we see as still under-valued as it grows into a store of value asset). As we head into 2018, we suggest taking FX forecasts with a grain of salt. In this environment, it may pay to adopt a patient and contrary stance, waiting for fleeting trends to crack and the fickle market to switch focus to the next spurious correlation.  Beware unforeseen strength in the US economy related to the massive corporate tax cut and upside risk to inflation.  This may result in surprising strength in the USD in 2018 and a correction on global asset markets.

Forget Bitcoin; the Real Bubble Is Global Equities