Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

FLASH: UK Sales Snap Back Down to Trend in Sep-18

FLASH: UK Retail’s Retreat in Oct-18 Offset by Revisions

FLASH: UK Retail Surges into Christmas 2018

FLASH: UK Consumer Hits New Highs in Jul-18

FLASH: UK Consumer Resurgence Despite Jun-18 Dip

FLASH: UK Consumer Beats Doubters in May-18

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>Retail sales exceeded consensus expectations again by growing 0.3% m-o-m in August, while Jul-18 was revised up to leave the level over 1% above trend. That leaves more room for negative payback later.</em></li>
<li><em>The mixture of a slightly better August and anticipation of a slight September fall balance positively for Q3 GDP growth, but my forecast remains at 0.5% q-o-q for Q3. Backloaded weakness should weigh more on Q4, where I still forecast 0.4%.</em></li>
</ul>


Retail sales exceeded consensus expectations again by growing 0.3% m-o-m in August, while Jul-18 was revised up to leave the level over 1% above trend. That leaves more room for negative payback later.
The mixture of a slightly better August and anticipation of a slight September fall balance positively for Q3 GDP growth, but my forecast remains at 0.5% q-o-q for Q3. Backloaded weakness should weigh more on Q4, where I still forecast 0.4%.


FLASH: UK Sales Stretch Surprisingly High in Aug-18