Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

FLASH: UK Partially Recovers into 2018 Yearend

FLASH: UK GDP Boosted by Consumers in Nov-18

FLASH: UK Retail’s Retreat in Oct-18 Offset by Revisions

Brexit: Withdrawal Deal Skews to Soft Brexit

FLASH: UK Sales Snap Back Down to Trend in Sep-18

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK retail sales surged by 1.2% m-o-m in Nov-18, which takes the level well above trend. Black Friday sales helped but discounting is not responsible.</li>
<li>Sales in December have had a strong positive correlation with November since 2014. I pencil in +0.5% m-o-m before sales normalise lower in the new year.</li>
<li>The latest rise raises my Nov-18 monthly GDP forecast to 0.2% m-o-m and removes the downside risk to my 0.3% q-o-q forecast for 4Q18.</li>
</ul>


UK retail sales surged by 1.2% m-o-m in Nov-18, which takes the level well above trend. Black Friday sales helped but discounting is not responsible.
Sales in December have had a strong positive correlation with November since 2014. I pencil in +0.5% m-o-m before sales normalise lower in the new year.
The latest rise raises my Nov-18 monthly GDP forecast to 0.2% m-o-m and removes the downside risk to my 0.3% q-o-q forecast for 4Q18.


FLASH: UK Retail Surges into Christmas 2018