Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

FLASH: UK Consumer Is Bullish BoB in Jan-19

FLASH: UK Retail High as BoBs Ignore Brexit Lows

FLASH: UK Retail Surges into Christmas 2018

FLASH: UK Retail’s Retreat in Oct-18 Offset by Revisions

Brexit: Withdrawal Deal Skews to Soft Brexit

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>UK retail sales retreated to their still-bullish trend level in Dec-18. A higher than usual share of consumption appears to have been pulled forward for Black Friday.</em></li>
<li><em>The significantly weaker outcome for December trims my monthly GDP forecast to 0.0% but leaves 4Q18 at 0.3% q-o-q. The earlier reversion to trend removes that source of depression from growth in the new year.</em></li>
</ul>


UK retail sales retreated to their still-bullish trend level in Dec-18. A higher than usual share of consumption appears to have been pulled forward for Black Friday.
The significantly weaker outcome for December trims my monthly GDP forecast to 0.0% but leaves 4Q18 at 0.3% q-o-q. The earlier reversion to trend removes that source of depression from growth in the new year.


FLASH: UK Retail Sales Normalise for End-2018