Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

FLASH: UK's Nov-18 Slowdown May Be the Trough

FLASH: UK GDP Offset Vehicle Disruption in Oct-18

FLASH: UK PMI Builds on Inventories in Dec-18

FLASH: UK GDP Growth Halving After a 3Q18 Surge

FLASH: UK Manu’ Surveys Slow Together in Oct-18

FLASH: UK Oct-18 PMIs Corroborate Q4 Slowdown

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>The UK’s manufacturing PMI rebounded by 2-points to 53.1 in Nov-18, contrary to the euro area’s stability, but the recovery in output was relatively modest. A flattish Q4 fits my forecast, although the CBI survey is much more bullish.</em></li>
<li><em>Amid unseasonably warm weather, energy utility output is likely to weigh on overall IP in October before being broadly neutral in November. I expect IP to fall by 0.4% m-o-m in the 10 Dec release for Oct-18.</em></li>
</ul>


The UK’s manufacturing PMI rebounded by 2-points to 53.1 in Nov-18, contrary to the euro area’s stability, but the recovery in output was relatively modest. A flattish Q4 fits my forecast, although the CBI survey is much more bullish.
Amid unseasonably warm weather, energy utility output is likely to weigh on overall IP in October before being broadly neutral in November. I expect IP to fall by 0.4% m-o-m in the 10 Dec release for Oct-18.


FLASH: UK PMI Manu’ Partially Rebounds in Nov-18