Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

FLASH: UK Oct-18 PMIs Corroborate Q4 Slowdown

FLASH: UK GDP Growth Halving After a 3Q18 Surge

FLASH: UK PMI Manu’ Partially Rebounds in Nov-18

FLASH: UK Manu’ PMI Overtakes EA in Sep-18

FLASH: UK 3Q18 GDP Growth Now Tracking 0.5% Q-O-Q

FLASH: UK August PMIs Reinforce Upside Risk to 3Q18

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

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<li><em>The UK’s manufacturing PMI fell to 51.1 in Oct-18, which is its lowest level since it rebounded from the referendum result in 2016. This decline left the UK’s PMI as weak as the euro area’s and the CBI manufacturing survey.</em></li>
<li><em>Transition to new emission standards seems to be harming the European auto sector, and that should feed into the ONS data too. I still expect 0.2% m-o-m growth in Sep-18, but the drag during 4Q18 is looking larger.</em></li>
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The UK’s manufacturing PMI fell to 51.1 in Oct-18, which is its lowest level since it rebounded from the referendum result in 2016. This decline left the UK’s PMI as weak as the euro area’s and the CBI manufacturing survey.
Transition to new emission standards seems to be harming the European auto sector, and that should feed into the ONS data too. I still expect 0.2% m-o-m growth in Sep-18, but the drag during 4Q18 is looking larger.


FLASH: UK Manu’ Surveys Slow Together in Oct-18