Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Tom has over two decades of experience in the realm of economics and finance, with expertise ranging from covering the global economy, deciphering financial markets, including macro forecasting, to advising on investment strategy.

He commenced his career in New York, initially at a large money-center bank and then at a hedge fund.  Thereafter, while in Singapore, he worked at two financial institutions and later joined academia.  

Tom has been consistently ranked among the top five most accurate economists in the world on forecasting the US economy overall (placed third, last published by the “Bloomberg Rankings of Top Forecasters”).  During the Global Financial Crisis, he was also acknowledged as the second-best US forecaster worldwide.  

Moreover, he was exclusively identified by Bloomberg to have accurately predicted the onset of the 2009 US recovery 16 months ahead of the official announcement.  Consequently, he has been widely publicized as one of “Wall Street’s Most Prophetic Economists”.

Is Underlying Inflation Edging Higher, Lower or Flatlining?

Almost Half of Global GDP Tracking Unevenly

Fed Snap (Jul 31 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways

Central Banks Globally: Cut, Hike or Pause?

Fed Snap (May 1 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Since the FOMC decision to remain on-hold in June was unsurprising, the emphasis was on the accompanying statement, dotplot and presser </li>
<li>The post-meeting statement tilted somewhat dovishly, but the 2024 median dot skewed more hawkishly</li>
<li>While a July rate cut remains remote, the odds of a September or November pivot have increased following the June FOMC </li>
</ul>


Since the FOMC decision to remain on-hold in June was unsurprising, the emphasis was on the accompanying statement, dotplot and presser 
The post-meeting statement tilted somewhat dovishly, but the 2024 median dot skewed more hawkishly
While a July rate cut remains remote, the odds of a September or November pivot have increased following the June FOMC 


Fed Snap (Jun 12 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways