Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Tom has over two decades of experience in the realm of economics and finance, with expertise ranging from covering the global economy, deciphering financial markets, including macro forecasting, to advising on investment strategy.

He commenced his career in New York, initially at a large money-center bank and then at a hedge fund.  Thereafter, while in Singapore, he worked at two financial institutions and later joined academia.  

Tom has been consistently ranked among the top five most accurate economists in the world on forecasting the US economy overall (placed third, last published by the “Bloomberg Rankings of Top Forecasters”).  During the Global Financial Crisis, he was also acknowledged as the second-best US forecaster worldwide.  

Moreover, he was exclusively identified by Bloomberg to have accurately predicted the onset of the 2009 US recovery 16 months ahead of the official announcement.  Consequently, he has been widely publicized as one of “Wall Street’s Most Prophetic Economists”.

Is Underlying Inflation Edging Higher, Lower or Flatlining?

Fed Snap (Jun 12 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways

Central Banks Globally: Cut, Hike or Pause?

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>My hybrid G3 nowcasting framework harnesses varied inputs from US, Euro Area (both through June) and Japan (mostly through May)</li>
<li>Although 2Q 2024 headline GDP growth for the G3 overall is tracking better, 3Q might be soggier   </li>
<li>The individual nowcasts imply prospective upside risk for Japan in the near-term, and perhaps emerging downside risk for the US and Euro Area in the offing</li>
</ul>


My hybrid G3 nowcasting framework harnesses varied inputs from US, Euro Area (both through June) and Japan (mostly through May)
Although 2Q 2024 headline GDP growth for the G3 overall is tracking better, 3Q might be soggier   
The individual nowcasts imply prospective upside risk for Japan in the near-term, and perhaps emerging downside risk for the US and Euro Area in the offing


Almost Half of Global GDP Tracking Unevenly