The Fed's transient inflation thesis hinges on temporary supply dislocations, but hitherto little attention has been paid to the issue of persistent excessive aggregate demand.
US industrial production and imports have fully and very quickly recovery from the recession relative to history, thereby casting doubts about a completely inadequate domestic recovery in aggregate supply.
Global supply chains struggle to cope with the US recovery due to shortages and strong demand, while pipeline PPI and housing suggest inflation could remain stubbornly high.
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