Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

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Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<div>US monetary policy remains data dependent: upside surprises to inflation in the coming months could dilute the Fed's claim that any overshooting of their inflation target will be transitory. Bond investors appear open to the idea of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) committing a policy mistake from competing sources. Firstly, some investors are worried about the Fed being too slow to respond to rising inflation. There are also those who fear the FOMC is being too optimistic in their assessment for economic growth.</div>
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<div>In contrast to previous economic cycles, the patience of the FOMC is going to be tested extremely early during the current expansion. Many late-cycle features that have historically facilitated rising consumer price inflation have already fallen into place, thereby making the speed of their emergence unprecedented.</div>
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<div>Reducing unemployment to pre-pandemic levels has been given policy priority over rising inflation, but labour supply in the short-term has been impacted by generous unemployment insurance. In the long-term, full employment may be lower compared to the previous expansion due to continued compression in the participation rate for prime-aged males who form a significant segment of the workforce.</div>
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<div>Fed Chair Powell's term expires in February 2022, thereby raising the prospect of political pressure from the Biden Administration on the incumbent to keep policy easy as possible as mid-term elections approach. There will be growing signs of dissent on the FOMC during the summer, particularly if strong data makes a tapering announcement in September inevitable.  </div>
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US monetary policy remains data dependent: upside surprises to inflation in the coming months could dilute the Fed's claim that any overshooting of their inflation target will be transitory. Bond investors appear open to the idea of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) committing a policy mistake from competing sources. Firstly, some investors are worried about the Fed being too slow to respond to rising inflation. There are also those who fear the FOMC is being too optimistic in their assessment for economic growth.


In contrast to previous economic cycles, the patience of the FOMC is going to be tested extremely early during the current expansion. Many late-cycle features that have historically facilitated rising consumer price inflation have already fallen into place, thereby making the speed of their emergence unprecedented.


Reducing unemployment to pre-pandemic levels has been given policy priority over rising inflation, but labour supply in the short-term has been impacted by generous unemployment insurance. In the long-term, full employment may be lower compared to the previous expansion due to continued compression in the participation rate for prime-aged males who form a significant segment of the workforce.

Fed Chair Powell's term expires in February 2022, thereby raising the prospect of political pressure from the Biden Administration on the incumbent to keep policy easy as possible as mid-term elections approach. There will be growing signs of dissent on the FOMC during the summer, particularly if strong data makes a tapering announcement in September inevitable.  






Fed Policy Outlook: Political Pressures and Fast Track Business Cycle Present Major Challenges