FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

A confusing set of minutes that say, on the one hand, many want to raise fairly soon, but on the other, many say there is likely to be ample time to respond if signs of rising inflation pressure emerge. Many want to emphasize a gradual rate tightening outlook, but several, it seems, want the Fed to appear more flexible.  There are some hawks that are ready to hike soon and others that might like to hold back until say June.  There are birds of all kinds of a feather.   In general, their views haven’t changed much since December, and at that meeting, the majority wanted to hike thrice this year. This throws up an interesting conundrum for timing when most seem to think the Fed prefers to change policy at the quarterly SEP/press conference meetings.  How do you fit three into four?  I mean, if we spread these three hikes over a year, then you hike at in-between meetings (May/July/Nov?).  Maybe the odds of moving at these lesser dates is higher than normal.   What does “fairly soon” mean.  It sounds like March or May…June would seem on the fringe of fairly soon.  If the Fed doesn’t like the in-between dates, then it sounds like March.  But if it’s only three this year, March sounds like a Fed stepping up the pace from last year, and getting a bit ahead of the three a year schedule.  The broader tone of the minutes didn’t really suggest any additional urgency to hike since December; gradual remains the buzz word.   The change in government is generating heightened uncertainty.  On balance it seems more likely to boost growth and inflation, but there are also downside risks.  Some don’t want to get too caught up in government policy watching and appear more hawkish, some others would like more clarity before rushing to hike.   The balance of risks appears to have shifted somewhat more positive, albeit still wide, but several Fed members see further strength in the USD exchange rate as restraining the growth and inflation outlook.    The strength in the USD is mentioned four times in these minutes, illustrating that it was raised more often in this meeting than normal, by several members, as an issue that might moderate the need to hike.   Business optimism has been given a big boost by possible tax cuts and stripping back regulation.  But the evidence of immediate impact on business investment is more cautious.  This may indicate much depends on the Government to deliver on its tax policy.   The Fed is acutely watching the labor market.  Several members are cognizant that it might already be on the verge of becoming too tight.   The USD is weaker in response to the minutes, perhaps because the increased mention of the USD exchange rate risks in the minutes resonates with the market.  The strong USD was a factor that appeared to slow the expansion last year. The USD is historically strong and it has failed to build much moment over the last year even as US rates have risen, suggesting its multi-year rally is sucking wind.    The market may also be pushing back the scope and timing for the government to deliver on its tax/regulatory/infrastructure policy and instead is getting mired down in immigration and healthcare policy issues.  Furthermore, the administration appears to want a weaker USD.

A confusing set of minutes that say, on the one hand, many want to raise fairly soon, but on the other, many say there is likely to be ample time to respond if signs of rising inflation pressure emerge. Many want to emphasize a gradual rate tightening outlook, but several, it seems, want the Fed to appear more flexible.  There are some hawks that are ready to hike soon and others that might like to hold back until say June.  There are birds of all kinds of a feather.   In general, their views haven’t changed much since December, and at that meeting, the majority wanted to hike thrice this year. This throws up an interesting conundrum for timing when most seem to think the Fed prefers to change policy at the quarterly SEP/press conference meetings.  How do you fit three into four?  I mean, if we spread these three hikes over a year, then you hike at in-between meetings (May/July/Nov?).  Maybe the odds of moving at these lesser dates is higher than normal.   What does “fairly soon” mean.  It sounds like March or May…June would seem on the fringe of fairly soon.  If the Fed doesn’t like the in-between dates, then it sounds like March.  But if it’s only three this year, March sounds like a Fed stepping up the pace from last year, and getting a bit ahead of the three a year schedule.  The broader tone of the minutes didn’t really suggest any additional urgency to hike since December; gradual remains the buzz word.   The change in government is generating heightened uncertainty.  On balance it seems more likely to boost growth and inflation, but there are also downside risks.  Some don’t want to get too caught up in government policy watching and appear more hawkish, some others would like more clarity before rushing to hike.   The balance of risks appears to have shifted somewhat more positive, albeit still wide, but several Fed members see further strength in the USD exchange rate as restraining the growth and inflation outlook.     The strength in the USD is mentioned four times in these minutes, illustrating that it was raised more often in this meeting than normal, by several members, as an issue that might moderate the need to hike.   Business optimism has been given a big boost by possible tax cuts and stripping back regulation.  But the evidence of immediate impact on business investment is more cautious.  This may indicate much depends on the Government to deliver on its tax policy.   The Fed is acutely watching the labor market.  Several members are cognizant that it might already be on the verge of becoming too tight.   The USD is weaker in response to the minutes, perhaps because the increased mention of the USD exchange rate risks in the minutes resonates with the market.  The strong USD was a factor that appeared to slow the expansion last year. The USD is historically strong and it has failed to build much moment over the last year even as US rates have risen, suggesting its multi-year rally is sucking wind.     The market may also be pushing back the scope and timing for the government to deliver on its tax/regulatory/infrastructure policy and instead is getting mired down in immigration and healthcare policy issues.  Furthermore, the administration appears to want a weaker USD. 

Fed Minutes Scatter the Birds and Dollar Rally Sucks Wind