Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

The Great Game: Why Russia is Really Cutting Diesel Exports

Macro Nugget: Why the price at the pump matters for inflation expectations

Steno Signals #66: Buckle up for the energy crisis 2.0

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>It’s time for the monthly preliminary inflation numbers from Europe again and we are yet to fear a YoY re-acceleration in European numbers.</li>
<li>Base effects are massive over the course of September and October, but there are signs of a cyclical pick-up in EUR-flation from late Q4 and onwards as well.</li>
<li>Conclusions up front:– Energy-inflation will bottom in November in Europe and goods inflation will likely follow– Services inflation will likely start to look very weak already this month, leaving a surprise in EUR-flation likely.</li>
</ul>


It’s time for the monthly preliminary inflation numbers from Europe again and we are yet to fear a YoY re-acceleration in European numbers.
Base effects are massive over the course of September and October, but there are signs of a cyclical pick-up in EUR-flation from late Q4 and onwards as well.
Conclusions up front:– Energy-inflation will bottom in November in Europe and goods inflation will likely follow– Services inflation will likely start to look very weak already this month, leaving a surprise in EUR-flation likely.


EUR Inflation Watch: Another Couple of Months of EASY Disinflation on the Cards