Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The EUR HICP report for February needs to be very soft to tempt the ECB into spring action.</li><li>The über-hawk of the committee Holzmann said the following on Bloomberg earlier:“But typically the Fed always in the last few years has always gone first by about half a year so I would assume, ceteris paribus, as things are, that we would also follow with delay,” which rhymes with market fears that the ECB, despite the outlook warranting a softer stance than the Fed, remains caught between a rock and a hard place when discussing the timing of the first cut.</li><li>We see Euro area HICP coming in around 0.3% MoM and most importantly German HICP coming in around 0.43% MoM in our nowcasts, which is probably around 0.2%-points below early consensus.</li></ul>

The EUR HICP report for February needs to be very soft to tempt the ECB into spring action.The über-hawk of the committee Holzmann said the following on Bloomberg earlier:“But typically the Fed always in the last few years has always gone first by about half a year so I would assume, ceteris paribus, as things are, that we would also follow with delay,” which rhymes with market fears that the ECB, despite the outlook warranting a softer stance than the Fed, remains caught between a rock and a hard place when discussing the timing of the first cut.We see Euro area HICP coming in around 0.3% MoM and most importantly German HICP coming in around 0.43% MoM in our nowcasts, which is probably around 0.2%-points below early consensus.

EUR-flation Watch: A major surprise is needed in February