Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cam Hui has been professionally involved in the financial markets since 1985 in a variety of roles, both as a quantitative equity portfolio manager and as a sell-side analyst. He graduated with a degree in Computer Science from the University of British Columbia in 1980 and obtained his CFA Charter in 1989.

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

US Value Vs Growth:  The Goldilocks Portfolio

The Anatomy of the US Underweight (And the Effect of Rising Passive ETF Flows in the US).

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

In light of the recent market weakness, we have been asked about downside equity risk. Is this the start of a significant downdraft? How far can stocks fall from current levels?There are growing, but unconfirmed, signs that large-cap growth and NASDAQ stocks are weakening. The NASDAQ 100 recently breached its rising trend channel, but its performance compared to the S&amp;P 500 remains in a relative uptrend. It is possible that the high-flying NASDAQ stocks are undergoing the beginning of a crash.Our base case downside risk for the S&amp;P 500 is 2000-2300, with a possible overshoot to about 1700 if the market were to really panic. This does not necessarily mean that the market will fall that far as it is based on the assumption of a NASDAQ and large growth stock crash.  U.S. equity investors can be largely insulated from the downdraft and find opportunity in cyclical and value stocks. Global investors will find more upside potential in non-U.S equities, with a particular focus on emerging markets.

In light of the recent market weakness, we have been asked about downside equity risk. Is this the start of a significant downdraft? How far can stocks fall from current levels?There are growing, but unconfirmed, signs that large-cap growth and NASDAQ stocks are weakening. The NASDAQ 100 recently breached its rising trend channel, but its performance compared to the S&amp;P 500 remains in a relative uptrend. It is possible that the high-flying NASDAQ stocks are undergoing the beginning of a crash.Our base case downside risk for the S&amp;P 500 is 2000-2300, with a possible overshoot to about 1700 if the market were to really panic. This does not necessarily mean that the market will fall that far as it is based on the assumption of a NASDAQ and large growth stock crash.  U.S. equity investors can be largely insulated from the downdraft and find opportunity in cyclical and value stocks. Global investors will find more upside potential in non-U.S equities, with a particular focus on emerging markets.

Estimating S&P 500 Downside Risk