bullish

Sea

ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) - Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas

316 Views09 Mar 2019 13:19
SUMMARY

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

It has been a fairly hectic week. We have been busy writing on upcoming IPOs, post-IPO events, and, to top it all off, there were four placements (Sea Ltd, RHB Bank, Xinyi Solar, and China Gas) this week.

Hong Kong's ECM activity seems to be picking up momentum. Starting off with approvals, Viva Biotech (1577881D HK) and Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) filed their respective PHIP on HKEX. Ke Yan, CFA, FRM had previously written on Viva Biotech here while we are currently working on Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) and also heard that Dongzheng Auto Finance had already kicked off pre-marketing on Monday.

For upcoming IPOs with completed bookbuilds, Yincheng International Holding (1902 HK) traded flat on debut (expected for a small and leveraged developer) while Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (1158 HK), which had Ctrip and GreenTree as cornerstone investors, will list next Monday.

As for early coverage on IPOs, Sumeet Singh had already given a broad overview of ESR Cayman (ESR HK)'s business. He will be following up with more detailed analyses in the coming weeks.

In the US, Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US) debuted well on Friday, trading up to as high as US$17 per share before closing just above US$15 but still well above the IPO price. We had been slightly more conservative because it is not exactly a very exciting company doing something groundbreaking but the management background in tech appears strong and there are no corporate governance issues.Sumeet Singh will update on trading liquidity and post-IPO analysis next week.

For pipeline IPOs, we heard that Ehang is planning its US IPO and it is looking to raise about US$500m. This is the Chinese drone manufacturer which made waves just over a year ago with a video of a team testing its autonomous aerial vehicle shown in the video below. Suffice to say, if and when the IPO launches, it will be interesting.

Ruhnn had also filed for IPO this week and we heard that pre-marketing will start next week while bookbuild will likely launch end of the month. This is an Alibaba-backed e-commerce influencer platform and we will be analyzing the company soon.

We had also been exploring potential trade ideas surrounding lock-up expiry such as Nio (蔚来) Lock-Up Expiry - Scattered Pre-IPO Investors to Be the Sellers and Meituan Dianping (美团点评): Thoughts Before Lock-Up Expiry. NIO's lock-up expiry had been an unfortunate case of poor outlook guidance in Q4 coinciding with lock-up expiry coming on the week after (11th March).

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 63.6% for Placements

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

  • Ruhnn (the U.S, ~US$200m)
  • Sun Car Insurance (Hong Kong, >US$100m)
  • Sichuan Languang Justbon Services (Hong Kong, ~US$100m)
  • Mabpharm (Hong Kong, re-filed)
  • Intellicentrics (Hong Kong, CLSA sole-sponsor, likely to be <US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

Source: Aequitas Research, Smartkarma

News on Upcoming IPOs

Smartkarma Community's this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

NameInsight
Hong Kong
AB InbevAb InBev Asia Pre-IPO - A Brief History of the Asia Pacific Operations - Eeking Out Growth in China
AscentageAscentage Pharma (亚盛医药) IPO: Too Early for an IPO
Ant FinancialAnt Financial IPO Early Thought: Understand Fintech Empire, Growth & Risk Factors
BitmainBitmain IPO Preview: The Last Hurrah Before Reality Bites
BitmainBitmain IPO Preview (Part 2) - King of Cryptocurrency Mining Rigs but Its Moat Is Shrinking
BitmainBitmain: A Counter Thesis
BitmainBitmain (比特大陆) IPO: Running Out of Steam on Mining Rigs (Part 1)
BitmainBitmain (比特大陆) IPO: Value At Risk of Founder's Belief (Part 2)
BitmainBitmain (比特大陆) IPO: Take-Aways from Founder's Recent Speech at Tsinghua University (Part 3)
BitmainBitmain (比特大陆) IPO: Intense Competition in the 7nm Mining ASIC Market (Part 4)
ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1)

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2)

China East EduChina East Education (中国东方教育) Pre-IPO - The Company Known for Its Culinary School
China TobacChina Tobacco International (IPO): The Monopolist Will Not Recover
China TobacChina Tobacco International IPO: Heavy Regulation, Declining Margins – A Bit Late to IPO Party
China TobacChina Tobacco Intl (HK) IPO: Proxy For the Chinese Cigarette Consumption
ESRESR Cayman Pre-IPO - A Giant in the Making
Frontage

Frontage Holding (方达控股) IPO: More Disclosure Needed to Understand Moat and Growth Prospect

Hujiang Edu

Hujiang Education (沪江教育) Pre-IPO - Spending More than It Earns

MicuRxMicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
SH Henlius

Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: Not an Impressive Biosimilar Portfolio

SH Henlius

HLX02: Innovation Could Overtake

TubatuTubatu Group Pre-IPO - Performing Better than Qeeka but Growing Much Slower, US$1bn a Stretch
TubatuTubatu Group Pre-IPO - Online -> Online + Offline -> Online -> ?
ShenwanShenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
Viva BioViva Biotech (维亚生物) IPO: When CRO Becomes Early Stage Biotech Investor
South Korea
Ecopro BMEcopro BM IPO Preview: The World's #2 Player in the NCA High Nickel-Based Cathode Materials
Ecopro BMEcopro BM IPO: Valuation Analysis
KMH ShillaKMH Shilla Leisure IPO Preview (Part 1) - Highly Profitable Operator of Public Golf Courses in Korea
KMH ShillaKMH Shilla Leisure IPO Preview (Part 2) - Valuation Analysis
HomeplusHomeplus REIT IPO - The Largest Ever REIT IPO in Korea
Hyundai AutoHyundai Autoever IPO Preview
Hyundai AutHyundai Autoever IPO Pricing: Likely to Be a Dull Event Given No Growth Story & Glovis Merger
Plakor

Plakor IPO Preview (Part 1)

ZinusZinus IPO Preview (Part 1) - An Amazing Comeback Story (#1 Mattress Brand on Amazon)
India
Anmol IndAnmol Industries Pre-IPO Quick Take - No Growth, Generous Payments to Founders
Bharat Hotels

Bharat Hotels Pre-IPO - Catching up with Peers

CMS InfoCMS Info Systems Pre-IPO Review - When a PE Sells to Another PE... Only One Gets the Timing Right
Crystal CropCrystal Crop Protection Pre-IPO - DRHP Raises More Questions than in Answers
Embassy REITEmbassy Office Parks REIT - Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish
Embassy REITEmbassy Office Parks REIT - Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield
Flemingo Flemingo Travel Retail Pre-IPO - Its a Different Business in Every Country
NSENSE IPO Preview- Not Only Fast..its Risky and Expensive
NSENational Stock Exchange Pre-IPO Review - Bigger, Better, Stronger but a Little Too Fast for Some
Mazagon DockMazagon Dock IPO Preview: A Monopoly Submarine Yard in India with Captive Navy Spending
Mrs. BectorMrs. Bectors Food Specialities Pre-IPO Quick Take - Sales for Its Main Segment Have Been Sta

Lodha

Lodha Developers Pre-IPO - Second Time Lucky but Not Really that Much Affordable
LodhaLodha Developers IPO: Large Presence in Affordable Segment Saves Lodha the Blushes in a Sluggish Mkt
IndiaMartIndiaMART Pre-IPO - Getting and Retaining Subscribers Seems to Be Difficult
PolycabPolycab India Pre-IPO - Market Leader with Steady Growth but with a Few Unanswered Question
PolycabPolycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown
The U.S.
TigerUp Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note - Much Too Reliant on IBKR
Malaysia
QSRQSR Brands Pre-IPO - As Healthy as Fast Food
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