Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

5 (+1) Central Banks We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoE, Norge’s Bank, BoJ & BCB

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The ECB is unlikely to rock the boat on Thursday but we still find strong risk/reward in betting on substantial forecast errors by the staff in Frankfurt in the coming months.</li><li>Here is why!In this short update on the ECB ahead of the first meeting of the year on Thursday, we aim at collecting our observations on EUR inflation, EUR growth and EUR liquidity- and boil it all down to an actionable assessment of the ECB outlook versus the forward pricing.</li><li>The ECB will most likely patiently await the outcome of wage developments through Q1 and the scope of VAT increases impacting the EUR HICP outlook.</li></ul>

The ECB is unlikely to rock the boat on Thursday but we still find strong risk/reward in betting on substantial forecast errors by the staff in Frankfurt in the coming months.Here is why!In this short update on the ECB ahead of the first meeting of the year on Thursday, we aim at collecting our observations on EUR inflation, EUR growth and EUR liquidity- and boil it all down to an actionable assessment of the ECB outlook versus the forward pricing.The ECB will most likely patiently await the outcome of wage developments through Q1 and the scope of VAT increases impacting the EUR HICP outlook.

ECB Watch: Trading the January lull