Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>Flash EA HICP inflation increased by 41bp to 3.36% in Sep-21, 13bp more than we expected. Pass-through of the energy price shock drove the excess increase while other areas were broadly slightly on the soft side.</em></li>
<li><em>The upside news and ongoing surge in wholesale electricity and gas prices lift us further above the consensus for the EA. We see a higher peak and above-2% rates until H2 2022. Underlying metrics have increased, with excess in our persistent-weighted measure.</em></li>
</ul>


Flash EA HICP inflation increased by 41bp to 3.36% in Sep-21, 13bp more than we expected. Pass-through of the energy price shock drove the excess increase while other areas were broadly slightly on the soft side.
The upside news and ongoing surge in wholesale electricity and gas prices lift us further above the consensus for the EA. We see a higher peak and above-2% rates until H2 2022. Underlying metrics have increased, with excess in our persistent-weighted measure.


EA: Some Persistence to Peak Inflation