Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>EA HICP inflation was revised up slightly to hit 5.87% y-o-y, but the ex-tobacco index still rounded down to 5.9% as expected on an index of 111.35 (forecast: 111.30).</li>
<li>We expect the headline rate to rise again in Mar-22, probably continuing the trend of incinerating consensus forecasts. The spike in fuel prices energises this change.</li>
<li>Core inflationary pressures are uncomfortably high for the ECB, including in the slowest moving measures. We see the annualised core rate broadly tracking at slightly over 3%.</li>
</ul>


EA HICP inflation was revised up slightly to hit 5.87% y-o-y, but the ex-tobacco index still rounded down to 5.9% as expected on an index of 111.35 (forecast: 111.30).
We expect the headline rate to rise again in Mar-22, probably continuing the trend of incinerating consensus forecasts. The spike in fuel prices energises this change.
Core inflationary pressures are uncomfortably high for the ECB, including in the slowest moving measures. We see the annualised core rate broadly tracking at slightly over 3%.


EA: More Fuel on the Inflationary Fire