Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

FX & Rates

The brevity of the recent correction to US equities suggests that US monetary conditions remain supportive for risk-taking.Foreign holdings of US Treasury securities remain significant, although official holdings have fallen in importance since 2011.Foreign influence in US equities is far lower compared to Treasury securities, but overseas buyers have grown significantly in importance for US corporate bonds.Changing policy expectations for overseas central banks have been major reasons for the dollar’s weakness during the past year, contrary to prevailing wisdom.US bond investors remain sceptical that the Fed will be able to raise the federal funds rate in line with forward guidance, while expectations about ECB policy have become significantly more hawkish, despite President Draghi’s dovish rhetoric.The Trump Administration is winning the Great Currency War due to its ability to wield a protectionist stick, as well as its willingness to take bond market risks with easier fiscal policy.

The brevity of the recent correction to US equities suggests that US monetary conditions remain supportive for risk-taking.Foreign holdings of US Treasury securities remain significant, although official holdings have fallen in importance since 2011.Foreign influence in US equities is far lower compared to Treasury securities, but overseas buyers have grown significantly in importance for US corporate bonds.Changing policy expectations for overseas central banks have been major reasons for the dollar’s weakness during the past year, contrary to prevailing wisdom.US bond investors remain sceptical that the Fed will be able to raise the federal funds rate in line with forward guidance, while expectations about ECB policy have become significantly more hawkish, despite President Draghi’s dovish rhetoric.The Trump Administration is winning the Great Currency War due to its ability to wield a protectionist stick, as well as its willingness to take bond market risks with easier fiscal policy.

Dollar Weakness: Blame Shifting Monetary Policy Expectations & Protectionist Trump Administration

USD

Dollar Weakness: Blame Shifting Monetary Policy Expectations & Protectionist Trump Administration