India: Notes from Hindi Heartland, There Are Issues but People Don't See a Better Choice than Modi

India: Big Shortfall in Tax Collections, but Fiscal Deficit Likely to Be Contained

India: 2019 Outlook - Strong Growth but Growing Risk of Policy Mistake

India: Dip in Rice Procurement and Loan Repayments, Are We Ready for New Wave of Farm Loan Waivers?

India Current Topics: Will BJP Go For Nationwide Farm Loan Waiver? RBI Buys Insurance With A Pause

India: Assembly Elections - BJP's Poor Results ≠ Defeat for Modi in 2019 from These States

Sadly, India Resembling Trump Admn in Official Resignations! Tussle Between Govt & RBI to Continue

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Direct income transfers to farmers are likely to become reality as competitive loan waivers are fast becoming a norm than an exception and every party is offering a larger waiver. Direct income transfers have been quite successful in the South Indian state of Telangana with KCR promising one at the national level if the Federal front (that he is proposing) is voted to power in the general elections. Cost of each of the measures (from loan waivers to universal basic income for all Indians) is between 0.7% to 2.7% of GDP with Universal Basic Income  (Rs 7620/individual for 75% of Indians) costing the highest. Even as initial fiscal costs are alarming, a gradual scale up (like in the Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme) and transfer of reserves from RBI in tranches could mitigate some fiscal impact. We expect the expert committee of the govt and the RBI to identify transferable reserves between Rs 1.0trn - 3.0trn. Overall, the freebies to Rural India will certainly power the consumption story strongly in 2019 with products sold in rural areas like FMCG, tractors and motorcycles expected to gain.

Direct income transfers to farmers are likely to become reality as competitive loan waivers are fast becoming a norm than an exception and every party is offering a larger waiver. Direct income transfers have been quite successful in the South Indian state of Telangana with KCR promising one at the national level if the Federal front (that he is proposing) is voted to power in the general elections. Cost of each of the measures (from loan waivers to universal basic income for all Indians) is between 0.7% to 2.7% of GDP with Universal Basic Income  (Rs 7620/individual for 75% of Indians) costing the highest. Even as initial fiscal costs are alarming, a gradual scale up (like in the Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme) and transfer of reserves from RBI in tranches could mitigate some fiscal impact. We expect the expert committee of the govt and the RBI to identify transferable reserves between Rs 1.0trn - 3.0trn. Overall, the freebies to Rural India will certainly power the consumption story strongly in 2019 with products sold in rural areas like FMCG, tractors and motorcycles expected to gain.

Direct Income Transfers Likely Soon; Universal Basic Income Possible By 2024 Funded by RBI Reserves