Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Dingdong Maicai IPO: Lacks Margin Upside & Fading COVID Impact

Dingdong Maicai: Profitability Is a Tall Order, Even in the Medium-Long Term

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dingdong-maicai" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33461:1" rel="noopener">Dingdong Maicai (DDL US)</a>, an on-demand fresh produce and grocery delivery platform in China with RMB 11.3bn in annual revenue and 6.9m in monthly active customers, announced the offer price range for its IPO at $23.5-25.5 per ADS.At the proposed IPO price range, Dingdong Maicai’s market cap and the post-money EV will be between $5.8-6.3bn and $5.0-5.5bn respectively.In our previous insights, we examined the company’s business model and the cost structure and expressed our concerns regarding Dingdong Maicai’s inability to be profitable in the next few years.At a 2022 EV/Sales range of 1.4-1.5x, valuation is also towards the high end compared to e-commerce peers with dominant 1P business models (Dingdong Maicai’s business model is mostly 1P).

Dingdong Maicai (DDL US), an on-demand fresh produce and grocery delivery platform in China with RMB 11.3bn in annual revenue and 6.9m in monthly active customers, announced the offer price range for its IPO at $23.5-25.5 per ADS.At the proposed IPO price range, Dingdong Maicai’s market cap and the post-money EV will be between $5.8-6.3bn and $5.0-5.5bn respectively.In our previous insights, we examined the company’s business model and the cost structure and expressed our concerns regarding Dingdong Maicai’s inability to be profitable in the next few years.At a 2022 EV/Sales range of 1.4-1.5x, valuation is also towards the high end compared to e-commerce peers with dominant 1P business models (Dingdong Maicai’s business model is mostly 1P).

Dingdong Maicai

Dingdong Maicai IPO - Valuation