Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

For those of you following the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/589" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:589">Dah Sing Financial Holdings</a> (440 HK) situation, this is an update of the ongoing trade idea with updates for pricing, reports of the first close of bidding last week, and news from China limitations of cross-border currency transfers suggesting the recent clampdown might limit bidding interest. Previous Insights in the series are:    <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dah-sing-ka-ching" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:2323">Dah Sing Ka Ching?</a>     <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dah-sing-ka-ching-ka-ching" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:2626">Dah Sing - Ka Ching Ka Ching?</a> So far (since Jan13), the trade (as suggested) is up 25+% using the closing price one full day after each Insight.I think the Dah Sing Financial Holdings (DSFH) trade has more to go.<ul><li>The possible clampdown on mainland buyers transferring money to Hong Kong to purchase insurance I believe has less impact than we think it does on Dah Sing's existing business, though it could dampen the ability of a mainland buyer to expand the business as quickly as it might like. </li><li>There is plenty of room on the valuation side, even if DSFH insurance business sale price expectations are dampened. </li><li>The structure of the deal as reported leaves a pretty clear line of sight to at least one outcome desirable to DSFH shareholders. That would provide 50% upside. A situation resulting in a sale of DSBG has not been discussed in recent speculation, but if it were to eventuate, it might provide 100% upside.</li></ul> More below the fold for subscribers....

For those of you following the Dah Sing Financial Holdings (440 HK) situation, this is an update of the ongoing trade idea with updates for pricing, reports of the first close of bidding last week, and news from China limitations of cross-border currency transfers suggesting the recent clampdown might limit bidding interest. Previous Insights in the series are:    Dah Sing Ka Ching?     Dah Sing - Ka Ching Ka Ching? So far (since Jan13), the trade (as suggested) is up 25+% using the closing price one full day after each Insight.I think the Dah Sing Financial Holdings (DSFH) trade has more to go.The possible clampdown on mainland buyers transferring money to Hong Kong to purchase insurance I believe has less impact than we think it does on Dah Sing's existing business, though it could dampen the ability of a mainland buyer to expand the business as quickly as it might like. There is plenty of room on the valuation side, even if DSFH insurance business sale price expectations are dampened. The structure of the deal as reported leaves a pretty clear line of sight to at least one outcome desirable to DSFH shareholders. That would provide 50% upside. A situation resulting in a sale of DSBG has not been discussed in recent speculation, but if it were to eventuate, it might provide 100% upside. More below the fold for subscribers....

Dah Sing Financial

Dah Sing - Ka Ching Ka Ching Ka Ching